Aberdeen host Motherwell on Saturday in Scottish Premiership action. After going on a mesmerising run in the first third of the season that saw them drop just two points in their first 12, Aberdeen then went on a 14 game stretch without a win in the league. This has now put their top 6 hopes on the line in the run in to the split. Motherwell are one of the chasing pack, sitting in 7th place just one point behind Hearts. A place in the top 6 secures the possibility of European football, with only 6th place missing out on European qualifiers. These matches are incredibly lucrative for Scottish teams, so those who are yet to secure a place in the top 6 will be going hammer and tong to secure a spot.

Aberdeen breathed a huge collective sigh of relief in mid-February as they finally won a Premiership match on their 15th attempt with a 2-1 win away at struggling Dundee. In their four league matches since this game, only a trip to Celtic Park has resulted in defeat. They did however have to come back from 2-0 down to salvage a draw in the New Firm derby, before being held to an extremely drab 0-0 at St Johnstone just before the international break. Aberdeen had a morale boosting 4-1 win over Queen's Park to book a semi-final at Hampden against Hearts in April, where the winner gets the chance to take on Celtic or St Johnstone to lift the famous Scottish Cup.

Looking back at Aberdeen's last 7 league games, we can see that they have only managed 2 clean sheets. Both of these were against sides in the bottom 3, and Hibs, Dundee United, St Mirren and Celtic have all managed to put at least 2 goals past the Dons in this sample. They have conceded 1.86 goals per game from an average xG concession of 1.36. Their goalscoring has been quite poor, logging just 0.86 goals per game from 1.16 xG on average. They failed to hit the net against St Johnstone, Hibs and St Mirren in this sample, but given their increasing desperation for points on the board, we anticipate a more attacking Aberdeen display against a vulnerable Motherwell.

Motherwell parted ways with their manager Kettlewell back in January after back to back defeats to bottom side St Johnstone saw a lot of disquiet in the fanbase. They took a perhaps unorthodox approach for a Scottish team by appointing an inexperienced German manager in Michael Wimmer, whose predominant experience came in the Austrian Bundesliga. Much of the chagrin within the Motherwell support was regarding their style of play, as their average possession hovered at around 38% for the season at the end of Kettlewell's reign. Wimmer has looked to get Motherwell more on the front foot, utilising their strong midfielders Lennon Miller and Callum Slattery to dictate the play more.

Wimmer has overseen four matches now with Motherwell, and although his first game away at Dundee United resulted in a 1-0 loss, he had only been in charge for a matter of days. In his three matches after this at home against Dundee and St Mirren and away at Rangers, Motherwell have looked much more dangerous and have scored twice in all three matches. While 'Well still have considerable work to do at the back - 1 clean sheet in 9 games - Wimmer looks to have the Steelmen more potent up top. Over their last 7 games, they have scored 1.14 goals per game from just 0.87 xG on average. They have however conceded 1.86 goals per game from a huge average xG concession of 1.59.

Aberdeen have had an inordinately high level of squad turnover this year as manager Jimmy Thelin has been given free rein to reshape the squad. They have signed a player or two in virtually every position on the pitch, but despite this are still beset with squad issues going into this game. Strong GK Mitov has had his third big injury of the season, so Ross Doohan will have to deputise again. Latvia's captain at CB Kristers Tobers suffered an injury prior to the international break and isn't expected to make this game. Irish CB Gavin Molloy is also ruled out. Jamie McGrath's injury is persisting too, but aside from this Aberdeen have their full raft of attacking players to rely upon. There are relatively few new injuries to Motherwell's squad, but the Steelmen have regularly had around 8 squad players unavailable at all times this season. Forward thinking players Maswanishe, Armstrong, Slattery and Miller are all available though, and Motherwell will be eyeing the three points at a vulnerable looking Aberdeen.

The Over 2.5 goals line looks to hold value given the combined average goal concession of the sides over the last 7 games is a huge 3.71 with their combined average xG concession at 2.94. Both sides need the three points in the race for the top 6, and Motherwell's attacking tweaks under new manager Michael Wimmer should see them trouble an injury plagued Aberdeen defence.

Best odds can be found at Betfred.