The Stars Align
At the heart of this matchup are two of the NBA's brightest stars: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) of the Thunder and Luka Dončić of the Mavericks. Both were top-three finishers in last season's MVP race, with Gilgeous-Alexander finishing second and Dončić third. The two superstars have been playing at an elite level again this season, leading their teams to strong records.
SGA is averaging 29.8 points per game this season and has been a constant offensive force for OKC. He has scored 30 or more points in six of his last seven games, cementing his status as one of the league's most electrifying scorers. Meanwhile, Dončić has been on fire since returning from a wrist injury. The Slovenian guard has posted back-to-back triple-doubles and is averaging 31 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists over his past four games. His ability to take over games has made him nearly unstoppable, and the Mavericks will rely on his brilliance to carry them forward.
Key Matchups: Inside and Out
While both teams boast offensive firepower, their defense will likely be just as critical to the outcome of this game. Oklahoma City’s defense is among the league’s best, ranking first in defensive rating and forcing more turnovers than any other team. The Thunder's defensive unit, led by Lou Dort, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Hartenstein, has proven to be a nightmare for opposing offenses, and they will need to slow down Dončić if they are to advance in the NBA Cup.
Hartenstein’s return has been especially valuable for OKC. The 7-footer has provided much-needed size in the frontcourt, especially with Chet Holmgren still sidelined by injury. Hartenstein has been a force on the glass, averaging nearly 13 rebounds per game while contributing offensively as well. The Mavericks will need to be disciplined in boxing out Hartenstein and limiting his impact on the boards to avoid falling into a rebounding disadvantage, a key area where the Thunder could exploit them.
On the Mavericks’ side, the frontcourt will also be tested. Dallas has been effective in terms of rebounding, ranking second in the league in offensive rebound percentage over the last 10 games. Players like Dwight Powell, and the P.J. Washington will need to help limit OKC’s second-chance opportunities and create extra possessions for Dallas.
Offensive Strategies: Iso Plays and Spreading the Wealth
Both teams rely heavily on isolation plays, with OKC running iso sets 10.1% of the time and Dallas right behind at 9.9%. However, it’s the Thunder’s ability to defend these plays that stands out. Oklahoma City leads the league in defending isolation sets, limiting opponents to just 36.6% success. This could present a significant challenge for Dončić, who often relies on isolation plays to break down defenses. Despite the Thunder’s stout defense, Dončić is known for making the impossible look routine, and if he continues his recent hot streak, he could break through even the best defensive schemes.
The Mavericks have also been more balanced this season, with contributions from across the roster. Dallas has had at least six players score in double digits in 10 of their last 11 games, demonstrating their depth and ability to spread the scoring load. Players like Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and PJ Washington are capable of stepping up, giving the Mavericks multiple scoring options when needed.
The Stakes
While both teams are playing excellent basketball, this game is more than just a quarterfinal matchup in the NBA Cup—it’s a chance to prove who truly belongs among the NBA’s elite. The Thunder come in with a 18-5 record, the best in the West, while the Mavericks are riding a seven-game winning streak and have won 11 of their last 12 games. These teams are close in terms of overall talent and have the potential to meet again later in the season with even higher stakes.
For Dallas, a victory would not only extend their winning streak but also build momentum heading into the semifinals of the NBA Cup. The Thunder, on the other hand, will be eager to get revenge after last season’s playoff exit and show that they’ve taken the necessary steps to become one of the top teams in the West.
Final Thoughts
This matchup between the Mavs and Thunder is definitely an exciting one. With both teams firing on all cylinders and boasting MVP-caliber players, the game promises to be a thrilling contest. The key to success for OKC will be slowing down Dončić while controlling the glass, while the Mavericks will need to maintain their offensive balance and limit turnovers to outlast the Thunder. Whether it’s a defensive battle or a high-scoring affair, Tuesday’s game will certainly provide plenty of drama.
As both teams have proven, this isn’t just any regular season game—it’s a statement opportunity that could set the tone for the rest of the season. The NBA Cup knockout stage is underway, and with the stakes as high as ever, there’s no telling who will emerge victorious in this thrilling Western Conference showdown.
Game Time: 3:30 AM GMT (10:30 PM ET)
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
