As a reminder, all but the very best players in the world should see their goal returns regress closer to their mean xG over time. However, reviewing the players who are outperforming their xG at this stage of the season gives us insight into those players who have been most lethal in the first third of the campaign.
Omar Marmoush at Frankfurt (5.49 xG Outperformance)
Leading the pack is Omar Marmoush with 11 goals (and 7 assists!) from just 5.51 xG on Bundesliga duty for Eintracht Frankfurt. Free-scoring Frankfurt have been a surprise package so far this year, only losing away to Leverkusen and Dortmund and going toe-to-toe with Bayern in a 3-3 draw.
These 11 Marmoush goals have come from just 22 shots on target, meaning that the Egyptian has scored 50% of all efforts on goal. Lethal!
Borja Sainz at Norwich City (5.29 xG Outperformance)
The Championship’s most prolific forward this campaign is just behind Marmoush in his outperformance, similarly on 11 goals from an xG of 5.71. After failing to establish himself in senior football in Spain, Norwich took a chance on 23 year old Sainz by bringing him in from a successful season in Turkey.
Three long-range efforts against Cardiff, Hull and Middlesbrough with a combined xG of just 0.14 have boosted this outperformance. The Spaniard has converted exactly a quarter of his total shots at goal and he will be destined for greater levels than the Championship if he continues on his recent trajectory.
Callum McGregor at Celtic (4.39 xG Outperformance)
Celtic’s long-serving Captain has added goals from midfield this season, and sits joint top of the scoring charts despite all 5 of his goals coming from at least 20 metres out. He has an xG of just 0.61, making his five long range strikes all the more remarkable. Just one of these goals has come at Celtic Park too, with the captain leading by example with assured performances on the road to keep Celtic ahead of Aberdeen in the league.
Mason Greenwood at Marseille (4.50 xG Outperformance)
As Mason Greenwood looks to get his career back on track after off-field controversies, a successful loan at Getafe was followed up by a permanent transfer to the south of France to join De Zerbi’s new look Marseille side.
He has shown his mental state is on track by bagging 8 goals in his first 11 league matches for the French side, and impressively this has come from just 3.50 xG. Two scored penalties are included, meaning his other 6 goals have come from only 1.92 xG. Greenwood will be hoping he and his teammates can put an end to recent form which has seen them win just 2 of their last 6, and finally mount a challenge against old rivals PSG. Since finishing ahead of them in 2011, the side from Marseille have finished at least 12 points behind PSG in every season excluding the interrupted Covid campaign.
Bryan Mbeumo at Brentford (4.12 xG Outperformance)
There has been much discussion and praise lately of Brentford’s decision making in attacking scenarios. With management looking for their players to prioritise the creation of high-percentage chances, it definitely helps that they have forwards capable of converting chances into goals at excellent rates. This is borne out in Bryan Mbeumo’s stats for the season, with the Cameroonian forward joint second with Chris Wood behind Haaland in the EPL scoring charts.
The Brentford man sits on 8 goals from just 3.88 xG. Seven of these goals (2 penalties) have come from inside the box, and he has only attempted 6 shots from outside the box all season, demonstrating Brentford’s insistence on executing high percentage chances instead of speculative ones. The presence of 2 penalties in this data again adds to his lethality, with 6 of his goals coming from just 2.30 xG. With Yoane Wissa now showing he is more than capable of competing with Mbeumo for Brentford’s golden boot and the best home form in the league, the job Thomas Frank and co are doing at Brentford continues to astound.
Ayoze Perez at Villarreal (3.97 xG Outperformance)
After almost a decade in English football, Ayoze Perez returned to his native Spain in 2023, first with Real Betis and now Villarreal. He has enjoyed an upturn in his form after the move back, and is in red hot form for his new side on the east coast of Spain. Having mainly been utilised on the wings, a shift up to ST this season sees Perez on a run of 7 goals in his first 9 league matches. This has been achieved with an xG of just 3.03 and 20 attempts, with three goals from within the 6 yard box.
Remarkably, all 7 of his shots on target have resulted in goals. This clinical finishing means he may well become a regular striking option for Euro 2024 winners Spain in the twilight of his career.
Mateo Retegui at Atalanta (3.96 xG Outperformance)
Coming from a sporting family, Mateo Retegui was born in Argentina and played for both River Plate and Boca Juniors at youth level. It wasn’t until a loan to Tigre at the age of almost 23 that he really started to show his abilities however. 30 goals in 48 league matches was enough evidence for Genoa to spend 15m EUR to bring him to the country of his heritage, and he has opted to play for Italy at international level.
Just 14 months after joining Genoa, he had shown enough for Atalanta to double the fee Genoa paid and he has hit the ground running in Bergamo. Retegui is sitting on 11 goals from his first 12 matches for Atalanta, with an xG of just 7.04. He has taken 41 shots across these 12 matches, demonstrating his team’s attacking intent this campaign.
Kang-In Lee at PSG (3.85 xG Outperformance)
The second largest outperformance in the French Ligue 1 comes from Kang-In Lee at PSG. The young Korean attacker is flying in his second season in Paris and has registered 6 goals from just 2.15 xG. Five of these goals have come from inside the box, and just 4 of his 18 goal attempts have been from outside of the box. He is showing how adept he is at being in the right place at the right time this season and looks well positioned to share Son Heung-Min’s burden for the South Korea national team.
Samu Omorodion at Porto (3.67 xG Outperformance)
Still just 20 years of age, Porto spent 15M EUR to bring Samu in from Atletico Madrid. Last campaign, he registered 8 goals and an assist for a mid-table Alaves side whilst on loan as a teenager. He hit the ground running in Portugal’s second city, scoring in five consecutive games from his second appearance onwards. He has scored 8 goals on league duty from an xG of just 4.33.
Samu has a goal per game on average on both league duty and the Europa League, which is an incredible return for such a young player. All twelve of these goals have come from within 10m of the goal, and he has only attempted one shot from outside the box on league duty. With his immense physicality and poacher’s instinct, it surely won’t be long until he earns his first Spain cap.
Liam Delap at Ipswich (3.58 xG Outperformance)
Last but by no means least, Liam Delap is another young player being lauded for his physicality. Having just registered a goal and an assist at Tottenham to earn Ipswich their first Premier League win of the season, Delap has bagged 6 goals from just 2.42 xG. The youngster has become an integral part of Ipswich’s attack.
It is no surprise that Delap has been linked with Chelsea in recent weeks. If he can continue to add goals and assists to his game at Premier League level, Ipswich will be well within their rights to ask for a premium fee for the young attacker.