Sportivo Luqueño look good value getting a +0.5 head start away to 2 de Mayo, who have shown little to justify their current market standing. While 2 de Mayo won their last game, that was just their second victory in their last 24 league matches — a 1-0 win over General Caballero, currently the worst-performing team in the division. It’s hardly the kind of result that signals a turnaround.

Luqueño, meanwhile, come into this one unbeaten in the Clausura phase. They've taken 7 points from 3 matches, including an impressive 0-1 away win over Libertad and a goalless draw on the road against Cerro Porteño — two of the league’s top sides. Their strong start to the Clausura picks up from a solid finish to the Apertura, and there's now a clear uplift in performances, aided by the addition of Sergio Díaz from Panetolikos, who’s made an immediate impact up front.

Head-to-head, Luqueño have also had the better of recent meetings. In the last six Primera División encounters between these sides over the past 18 months, 2 de Mayo have won just once. They’ve also been priced shorter than 3.79 to win in five of those six meetings, which underlines that the market has typically viewed Luqueño as the stronger side in this matchup — and with 2 de Mayo’s winless home record, that view holds weight.

2 de Mayo remain without a home win in 2024, going 0-7-5 across 12 home games this year. Their struggles in front of goal at home are particularly stark — they’ve failed to score in their last three at home and have managed just 5 goals in 14 home matches overall. Despite often trailing, they produce the joint second-lowest xG at home in the league (1.23 per 90), and continue to lack any real attacking threat on their own turf.

Luqueño’s away record in the Apertura wasn't outstanding, but it's worth noting that many of those poorer results came either side of Copa Sudamericana fixtures. In fact, their only three away defeats in their last 10 road games came within five days of continental matches, and were all against top-eight sides in the Tabla Anual — Olimpia (5th), Guaraní (3rd), and Nacional (8th). With no such distraction now, and momentum on their side, Luqueño look well placed to continue their unbeaten Clausura run.

Given 2 de Mayo’s poor home form, lack of goals, and the consistent improvements shown by Luqueño — both in results and personnel — backing the visitors +0.5 offers a strong edge here.

Best odds available at BetMGM or Unibet.