Airdrie head into the second leg of the Scottish Championship relegation playoff final with a slender 2-1 advantage and a golden opportunity to complete their turnaround. Having endured a nightmare start to the season with just 6 points at Christmas due to a devastating injury crisis, The Diamonds have shown their true level in recent months and look every bit a mid-table Championship side again. Airdrie have been on the front foot in each of their play off games so far, scoring the first goal and winning the tie in 90 minutes in all three matches against Stenhousemuir and Cove Rangers.

In the first leg in Aberdeenshire, Airdrie were comfortably the more accomplished side in possession, despite being hampered by Cove Rangers’ sticky artificial surface which stifled their short ground-passing game. Cove did well to make the contest competitive, as both sides scored from a first-half corner, but the men from Aberdeenshire were visibly flagging by the final whistle and looked short on energy and options. With only five outfield substitutes named for that match, fatigue is a growing issue – especially for a squad that has been stretched thin for the last two months. Both key men Fraser Fyvie and Mitch Megginson have had to play through knocks and the quick turnaround into Saturday's vital game is unlikely to be enough rest.

The return to the Excelsior Stadium should give Airdrie a greater edge as they look to kill off the tie and preserve their Championship status. The ground staff will ensure the surface is in optimal condition for their possession-based style, and the likely return of defender Aiden Wilson strengthens a backline that has quietly impressed in recent weeks. Over their last 11 games, Airdrie have only conceded more than once on 2 occasions – both times to the top two in the league (3-3 vs Livi, 0-2 vs Falkirk) – and their underlying match averages in the lead up to the Cove tie (1.6 goals per game from 1.52 xG) suggest their recent form is no fluke. The only real dip in Airdrie's performances came when the squad was given an unexpected reprieve by Hamilton's points deduction.

Cove, in contrast, managed just two wins in their final eight league games and both came against sides who finished in the bottom two. Their xG and goals conceded metrics have crept up at the worst possible time and the paucity of options to change things up in Paul Hartley's squad means an uphill battle is expected on Saturday evening.

With Airdrie’s quality, fitness and pitch advantage all pointing in their favour, the price of 1.65 on a home win looks to be good value. We expect The Diamonds to be on the front foot as usual as they look to complete the job and preserve their Championship status.

Best odds can be found at William Hill.