This bantamweight matchup between Aiemann Zahabi and Jose Aldo feels much closer than the current odds suggest, offering clear value on Zahabi as a sizable underdog. While Aldo is the rightful favourite based on name and legacy, there are multiple factors that point toward this being a competitive and potentially tricky fight for him.

Zahabi has proven to be extremely difficult to hit, with a 71% striking defence rate — elite numbers by MMA standards. His recent performances have been the best of his career, showing sharp defensive awareness, underrated power, and smart fight IQ. His preparation, alongside his brother and team in Montreal, is always meticulous, and they are likely to have targeted Aldo’s struggles in the clinch, which were exposed in his last fight against Bautista.

Aldo, at 38 years old, recently returned to the Octagon after briefly retiring prior to his homecoming in Brazil, and while still dangerous, he’s far from his peak years. Unlike Zahabi, Aldo carries significant wear and tear from a long career at the highest level. His best route here might be leg kicks, but he has rarely utilised them in recent fights, and Zahabi is effective at checking them. The fight is expected to play out mostly at striking range, where both men are defensively sound and selective in their output. This could lead to a low-volume, tactical bout where Zahabi’s unorthodox but well-coached striking style, combined with slightly higher activity, may be enough to sway rounds.

Additionally, Zahabi will have home advantage, with strong support in Montreal and UFC legend Georges St-Pierre in his corner, giving him extra motivation. While Aldo has little left to prove and may even be considering retirement again, Zahabi is in arguably the best form of his career and stands to gain far more with a win.

At these odds, Zahabi is a value play in what looks likely to be a close, low-volume fight where his defensive sharpness and preparation give him every chance to edge out the former champion.