This is a breakout opportunity for Jose Ochoa, who looks like a future contender at flyweight. He’s massive for the division, 3 inches taller and 7 years younger than Almabaev, and brings a relentless, offense-first style that should break Asu down over 15 minutes. Ochoa’s pressure, pace, and commitment to body work — especially with his knees — are serious weapons in a fight where he owns clear edges in both striking volume and cardio.

Almabaev is a solid chain wrestler, but he lacks top control, consistent output, and any real threat on the feet. His striking is extremely limited — mostly looping overhands without a jab to set anything up. When pressured, he tends to get stuck circling with no plan B, and that’s exactly the kind of fight Ochoa thrives in. We’ve already seen Almabaev reversed and out-scrambled by poor grapplers like CJ Vergara and Jose Johnson. Against someone with athleticism, size, and real damage potential like Ochoa, his style starts to fall apart — especially in rounds two and three.

Ochoa, meanwhile, is a real problem at 125. He’s coming off a huge win over Durden, where his pressure, cardio, and shot selection completely overwhelmed a gritty opponent. His takedown defense continues to improve, and his hips and getups are solid. He’s also dangerous in all ranges and has legit front-choke threats to punish lazy entries from Almabaev.

There’s a world where Asu wins round one with control time, but the longer this goes, the clearer it should become. Ochoa is the more dangerous fighter, with better striking, more power, superior conditioning, and the physicality to keep this fight upright. Unless Asu controls him for long periods — which seems unlikely given how he fades late and how well Ochoa scrambles — this is Ochoa’s fight to take over. He holds all the finishing upside and can win a decision by doing far more damage.

Best odds available at Cloudbet.