Amiens seem to be disrespected by the market due to their poor recent run, losing eight of their last 11 league games, picking up just two wins and one draw in that stretch. However, context is important—Amiens have struggled away all season, and in this 11-game run, four of their nine losses came on the road, including defeats to the top two teams in the league. At home, their results have been far more competitive. In their six home games during this period, they beat both Annecy and Bastia, two decent sides (though they were aided by a red card in the Annecy match), and lost narrowly to top 3 side Metz after conceding in the 89th minute. Their other two home losses came against Grenoble (9th place) and Troyes (mid-table), both strong opponents.

A key reason behind Amiens’ dip in form was injuries and squad turnover, particularly in defence, where starting centre-backs Urhoghide and Mamadou Fofana both left the club. However, they have stabilized their defence with Aït Boudlal coming in from Rennes and forming a strong pairing with Jaouab in a back three. In games where both have featured together, Amiens have looked much more solid defensively, particularly in the Metz and Rodez matches. Their last game against Red Star saw a defensive drop-off due to Jaouab’s suspension, but he returns for this match, his return along with others mean Amiens have a fully fit squad for the first time in a while.

Caen, meanwhile, enter this game with some key injury problems and absences. Their defensive midfielder Gaucho Debohi is suspended after starting 24 of their 26 games, while experienced Yann M’Vila is also ruled out. Their new signing Benrahou is unavailable and new signing Grandsir may be fit to return after getting injured in his first game but it feels unlikely he will be able to heavily impact this fixture given it'll be just his second game for the club and he's been out injured for over a month. With two key central midfielders missing, Caen will likely struggle to control the game or protect their already weak defence.

Both teams desperately need a result. Caen sit bottom of the table, 11 points behind Amiens, while Amiens are only five points clear of relegation. However, Amiens will rely on their strong home record to pick up points and secure safety, knowing that a win could push them into mid-table given how tight the league is. Amiens rank 8th in terms of home points, with 7 wins, 2 draws and just 4 losses at home, all 4 of their home losses coming versus sides inside the top 10.

Caen’s recent results have been deceiving, with a draw against Pau and a narrow win over Clermont, but both were somewhat dependent on players who are now missing and generally they were not the most convincing results that didn't seem to indicate a significant turnaround in form. Against Pau, their first came from the two absentees for this fixture combining and the second came when they had a man advantage over Pau - both goals coming from set pieces, struggling to create any real chances from open play. Against Clermont they won by a goal to nil, their winner coming in the 86th minute. Clermont are one of the poorest sides in the league, sitting in the relegation zone along with Caen - in terms of home performance they are not close to Amiens. Outside of these two results, Caen have lost 10 of their last 12 matches.

Away from home, Caen have been dreadful, winning just two of 12 matches, drawing one and losing nine. Those two wins came against the two other sides in the relegation zone, one of which at a neutral venue match against Martigues. Their only away draw came against newly promoted Red Star, and before beating Clermont, they had lost six consecutive away games. Caen have struggled badly for goals, scoring the second-fewest goals in the league, and on the road they have failed to score in five of their 12 away matches. Defensively, they have the joint worst clean sheet rate in the league, keeping just four clean sheets in 26 games, with three of those four coming against bottom-six teams. They allow 1.48 xGA per game on the road, highlighting their structural defensive issues.

Amiens, on the other hand, are one of the most consistent home-scoring teams, finding the net in 11 of their 13 home games—the third-best home scoring rate in the league. Their attacking metrics are strong, with an average home xG of 1.63, largely helped by key attackers Mafouta and Leautey, who are both in the top 10 players for total xG this season.

While Amiens have struggled in recent weeks, this fixture should present a crucial opportunity to get back on track, Caen's desperation for points should leave them vulnerable defensively. Amiens are a much bigger price than they should be, and the value on the DNB (Draw No Bet) line is too good to ignore. With their fully fit squad, better home record, and Caen’s away struggles and key absences, Amiens 0.0 Asian Handicap looks good value at 2.15.