Atlanta Falcons (8-8) are set to host the Carolina Panthers (4-12) in a meaningful Week 18 matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both teams are expected to employ pass-heavy strategies, increasing offensive play volume and the potential for a high-scoring game. The over/under of 48 points reflects this expectation. Falcons, currently at 8-8, are in need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, albeit the chances are minimal and depend on their rival Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has shown promising signs, and with the Panthers' defensive struggles, he is well-positioned to exploit their weaknesses. Running back Bijan Robinson, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, is also expected to be a significant factor against a Panthers defense that has allowed 6.1 yards per carry since Week 11.

Panthers' defense has been decimated by injuries, with key players like linebacker Shaq Thompson and defensive tackle Derrick Brown out for the season. Additionally, linebacker DJ Johnson will miss the finale due to a concussion from a car accident. These absences have significantly weakened their ability to defend against both the run and the pass. With a 4-12 record, the Panthers are out of playoff contention and are likely to use this game to evaluate players for the future. This experimental approach should see their offense trying out new things and using their better plays to better evaluate their QB Bryce Young, leading to more passing volume. We see value in the over up to the line of 51.