Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the second leg of their Round of 16 Champions League match on Wednesday. Already the fourth meeting between the sides this season, Madrid got the edge over Atleti with a 2-1 win last week after two 1-1 draws on La Liga duty. With both sides still well in contention for top spot in the league, this Champions League tie represents an opportunity for either Madrid side to score a big mental victory in the league run in.

The H2H in this fixture paints a mixed picture for Atletico's chances. Madrid have edged each of their previous three meetings between the sides in the Champions League since 2014. However, Atleti have lost just once on home turf in the last 7 meetings between the Madrid rivals, and will be looking to home advantage to get them back in the tie. Last week, the attacking quality enjoyed by both sides was on full display as Rodrygo, Julian Alvarez and Brahim Diaz all scored contenders for goal of the week. Despite just 0.88 xG being registered in the match, Real Madrid ran out 2-1 winners and will be looking to build on this tight lead on Wednesday, in a similar fashion to how they got the better of Manchester City last round. Both teams have scored in this fixture in 10 straight matches going back to May 2022. Given the game state with Atletico needing to chase a win, we anticipate an open game at the Metropolitano.

Despite Simeone's reputation for Atletico being hard to beat and breaking up play, Atleti have found clean sheets incredibly hard to come by in the Champions League this season. Their solitary clean sheet in their 9 matches so far came in a 6-0 win at injury-ravaged Sparta Prague, with both Pot 4 sides managing a goal against Atleti alongside a 4-0 thrashing at Benfica. They have managed to outscore their opponents throughout the campaign however, and sit on an average goals of 2.56 from just 1.47 xG on average in the UCL. They have conceded 1.33 goals and xG per game in this year's UCL. Their recent domestic form has followed a similar path, with an average of 1.83 goals over their last 6 games from 1.34 xG, highlighting the quality of their forward players. They have conceded 1.33 goals per game over these recent domestic games, but have given up a huge 1.72 xG on average. They played out a pulsating 4-4 draw away at Barca in the Copa del Rey, scoring twice in the first six minutes.

Thanks to a lacklustre league phase campaign from Madrid, they have now played 11 games in this year's UCL, having to navigate a play-off round against Manchester City. They made incredibly light work of City in Spain, and ran out 6-3 winners on aggregate. Similarly to their city rivals, they have kept just one clean sheet in these 11 matches, coming in a 3-0 win away at Brest in which they were rather fortunate not to concede. They have also had to outscore many of their opponents, registering 2.55 goals per game across these 11 matches, from an average xG of 2.32. They've conceded 1.45 goals per game from 1.66 xG, and given Atletico's need to attack on Wednesday, will need to shore things up at the back if they are to get through comfortably. Madrid have improved a little at the back in recent domestic form, keeping two clean sheets against Girona and away at Sociedad in the CdR, but will be concerned at losing two goals at Betis and Leganes across their last 6.

Looking at UCL trends since 2022, second legs have seen an average of 2.98 goals from 3.00 xG, in comparison to first legs at just 2.63 goals from 2.60 xG. The Overs on the mainline has landed in 46% of second legs, in comparison to just 38.8% of first legs. In the 11 second leg matches where the mainline has been 2.75 goals, just 36% of these have seen Unders come in. With the enormous stakes on the line for both sides, and Real Madrid's slender lead, we anticipate an open, attacking game that should see some of the world's finest front men bagging more goals.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.