This welterweight title fight is a classic striker vs grappler matchup, with clear objectives on both sides: Belal Muhammad will aim to wrestle and control, while Jack Della Maddalena (JDM) looks to keep the fight standing and apply relentless boxing pressure.

Belal’s recent record is impressive on paper, but it’s worth noting that much of his success has come against older fighters who lacked finishing ability. This matchup is different. JDM is one of the most dangerous finishers at 170 pounds, with a proven ability to land powerful combinations and work the body effectively — arguably some of the best pocket boxing and bodywork in the UFC, alongside elite names like Ilia Topuria. Crucially, Belal has yet to face a striker with this type of precision and offensive variety.

While JDM’s takedown defence is not elite, he has shown solid initial resistance and an excellent scrambling ability — notably against Gilbert Burns, which is a strong reference point for this fight. Even if taken down, JDM is unlikely to be controlled easily, and Belal’s lack of finishing threat means JDM should have the full five rounds to work toward either a knockout or a damage-based decision. Importantly, JDM’s cardio matches well with Belal’s, which removes one of Belal’s typical advantages in long fights.

Another key factor is age. JDM is 8 years younger, and historically, fighters aged 35+ have struggled in title fights. While Belal’s kicking game may pose some challenges, as seen when JDM had issues with Gilbert Burns’ kicks, his overall durability and adaptability should help manage those moments.

Though JDM’s recent run includes two split decisions and a comeback KO, and while there are some concerns with his return from an elbow injury, the injury type is less likely to impact performance compared to more serious issues like knees or shoulders. His ongoing training with Craig Jones also suggests continued improvements in wrestling defence and grappling.

This is certainly a step up for JDM, and it’s the first time we see him in a role reversal — as an underdog after being the betting favourite in previous fights. Belal, on the other hand, is accustomed to being undervalued by the market. Nonetheless, the value here lies with JDM, given his finishing upside, superior striking, and ability to threaten over 25 minutes.

Best odds available at SkyBet, BetVictor and Betfred.