Mattia Bellucci, having come through qualifying in Toronto with sharp court timing, faces French wildcard Hugo Gaston. Bellucci has shown impressive match fitness, combining aggressive return game with improved serve placement this season. Gaston, while inventive and flashy, brings inconsistency and needs rhythm to unlock deception-based patterns—less reliable at ATP 1000 stage.

Bellucci converts break points more aggressively (above 32%) and holds serve around 80% on hard courts; Gaston’s serve stats dip under pressure and he struggles to hold big servers under ATP-grade pace. Bellucci’s steadier defense and flattening ability in baseline rallies reduce Gaston’s trick shots’ effectiveness—especially given the pressure of a main-draw match.

In terms of trends, Bellucci has elevated his game on hard courts this year with consecutive qualifying wins and main-draw breakthroughs in 250 events. Gaston’s grass experiments didn’t translate well in Washington and Toronto qualifies. Bellucci has the edge in endurance and tangible serve-return balance. With his no-nonsense approach and Gaston’s erratic weaponry likely inconsistent, Bellucci is positioned to win outright.