Bradford on the -0.75 Asian Handicap looks a looks to offer good value versus Tranmere, especially with Bradford coming off a full week of rest and preparation following their slip-up against Gillingham. Manager Graham Alexander has emphasised how beneficial this break has been after an extremely hectic schedule, as they now focus on their final push for automatic promotion.

Prior to their loss at Gillingham, Bradford were unbeaten in seven league games, winning six and drawing one. Over their last 15 league matches, they have been in exceptional form, winning 12, drawing two, and losing just once—a tight defeat against AFC Wimbledon, another promotion contender. At home, they have been dominant, winning 10 straight league games and keeping six consecutive clean sheets. They are the best home side in the league, with a record of 14 wins, three draws, and just one loss, with two of the four instances they dropped points coming against top-five opponents.

Bradford’s defensive numbers are exceptional, conceding the fewest goals in the league by a margin of seven goals, with just 30 conceded in 36 games. Their home defensive record is even stronger, allowing only 10 goals in 18 home matches, with nine clean sheets. They also rank among the best in xGA on home turf, conceding just 1.02 xGA per game.

Tranmere’s odds are receiving some respect due to their recent three-game unbeaten streak, managing two draws and a win against top-half sides (Bromley, Grimsby, and Port Vale). However, two of these matches were at home, where they have been much stronger. Their only away result in that run was a 1-1 draw at Grimsby, which came in volatile midweek conditions where Grimsby were on short rest after an away game at Cheltenham. Despite getting the draw, Tranmere were battered on xG and only survived thanks to Grimsby having a late goal disallowed.

This upcoming fixture presents a completely different challenge—an away day against a fully rested, promotion-hunting Bradford side eager to bounce back. Tranmere have been awful away from home all season, ranking dead last in away points, with two wins, three draws, and 12 losses. Four of their five positive away results came within the first six away games of the season. Before their draw at Grimsby, they had lost nine straight away games.

Defensively, Tranmere have been one of the worst teams in the league, particularly on the road. They have kept just one clean sheet in 17 away games, conceding 36 goals (an average of 2.12 per game). They rank second-worst in xGA away, allowing 1.70 xGA per game. Against a Bradford attack that has scored in 14 straight home matches, Tranmere will likely struggle to keep the hosts out.

Bradford are slightly bigger in price than expected due to two key attackers, Andy Cook and Bobby Pointon, remaining out. However, this match should be decided more by their defence, as Tranmere’s attack has been dreadful away from home, scoring just 11 goals in 17 away matches and failing to score in eight of those. Burnley loanee Michael Mellon returns for Bradford after being rested last game, and he should provide a big boost going forward, having scored twice and assisted once in his last two starts.

With the added motivation of closing the gap at the top of the table, Bradford should have too much for Tranmere here. A win in this game in hand would take them level on points with Walsall in first place, and after last week’s loss, they should be fully focused on delivering a strong response. Bradford -0.75 offers solid value in a game where they should take control against the league’s worst away team.