The Atlanta Braves (27–33) are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks (30–31) in the series finale at Truist Park. The Braves are looking to avoid a series sweep after dropping the first two games, including a narrow 2–1 loss on June 4, where they managed only one hit over seven innings against Arizona's Merrill Kelly. This defeat marked Atlanta's third consecutive loss and their 10th in the last 13 games, highlighting a period of offensive struggles.

Conversely, the Diamondbacks have capitalized on the Braves' slump, securing three straight victories and taking a 3–2 lead in the season series. Their recent success has been propelled by strong pitching performances and timely hitting, positioning them just below .500 and keeping them in contention within the National League West.

Despite recent setbacks, the Braves have a statistical edge in today's matchup, particularly on the mound. Starting pitcher Grant Holmes has been a consistent performer, posting a 3.78 ERA and allowing three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last ten starts. His ability to limit damage and keep games within reach provides a solid foundation for Atlanta.

In contrast, Arizona's starter Brandon Pfaadt has struggled recently, with his ERA ballooning from 2.78 to 5.05 over the past month. His last outing was particularly rough, as he failed to record an out while surrendering eight runs. This downturn in performance suggests potential vulnerabilities that the Braves' offense could exploit.

The Braves' lineup, while currently underperforming, has the potential to rebound against Pfaadt. Key hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley have the capability to capitalize on Pfaadt's recent struggles, especially given his tendency to allow home runs. Additionally, Holmes' familiarity with the Diamondbacks' lineup could play to his advantage, as he aims to navigate through their batting order effectively.

Defensively, the Braves have been solid, and their bullpen has shown resilience in close games. If Holmes can deliver a quality start, it would alleviate pressure on the relievers and provide a clearer path to victory.

Historically, the Braves have performed well in situations where they are looking to avoid a sweep, often rallying to secure a win in the final game of a series. Moreover, Atlanta has a favorable record in day games at home, which could bode well for today's afternoon matchup.

While the Diamondbacks have momentum, their inconsistency throughout the season suggests that sustaining a winning streak may be challenging. Given the pitching matchup and the Braves' urgency to halt their losing skid, Atlanta appears poised to leverage their statistical advantages and secure a much-needed victory.

Considering the pitching dynamics and the Braves' potential to rebound, Atlanta holds a statistical and situational advantage in today's game. While recent form favors Arizona, the combination of Holmes' consistency and Pfaadt's struggles positions the Braves as the more favorable pick to win the series finale.

Best odds available at LiveScoreBet.