Bu Yunchaokete, ranked around 160, takes on Vit Kopriva, a clay-court specialist with poor hard-court form. Bu has a dynamic hard-court style—strong serve, aggressive return stats, and rhythm—to suppress longer rallies. Kopriva relies on defensive consistency suited to slower surfaces; his win rate on hard this season hovers below 30%.

Bu wins over 85% of service games and saves more than 65% of break points, while Kopriva holds under pressure only about 70% and converts few return opportunities. Under simulation models, Bu is estimated over 60% chance to win and projects a loss margin often under three games, concentrated in straight sets or narrow set-loss.

Matchup analysis shows Bu dictating play early with serve placement and variety; Kopriva’s slower ball speed and tendency to get pushed behind the baseline put him on the back foot. Trends this season show Kopriva losing by wide margins on hard; Bu maintains dominance in even match-tight situations, making −2.5 games handicap realistic and value-laden.