The Milwaukee Bucks, currently holding the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, are set to face the Indiana Pacers, who trail them by just one game in the standings. This matchup carries significant playoff implications, as a victory for Milwaukee would secure the head-to-head tiebreaker, having won the previous two encounters this season.

The Bucks enter this game on extra rest, aiming to rebound from two consecutive defeats following a strong stretch of performances. In contrast, the Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back, having recently suffered a narrow 120-118 loss to the Atlanta Hawk,.

Defensively, Milwaukee has shown marked improvement over the past 15 games, ascending to the fifth-best defensive rating in the league in that span, while the Pacers rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Offensively, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a consistent force against Indiana, averaging 33.5 points over the two games this season. Historically, he has recorded 40 combined points and rebounds in 11 of the last 14 meetings, posing a significant challenge for the Pacers, who rank 28th in points and 22nd in rebounds allowed to power forwards.​

Both teams are among the top ten in pace this season, which could present issues for the Pacers on a back-to-back against a fast-paced opponent. In previous matchups, Indiana held an edge in fast break points, outscoring Milwaukee 48-34 across both games. However, considering the Bucks typically allow only 15.6 fast break points per game, this advantage may diminish, especially given the Pacers' reliance on transition opportunities, where they rank ninth in percentage of overall points from such plays.​

The Pacers have struggled defensively in the paint, allowing an average of 52 points per game, ranking 28th in the league. While the Bucks are not traditionally a heavy paint-scoring team, they have increased their production in this area recently, moving up to 15th in paint points over the past five games. Additionally, Milwaukee ranks 14th in field goal attempts from the restricted area, and the Pacers allow field goal makes at the seventh-worst rate from this zone. Indiana's recent losses to teams like the Hawks and Bulls were also due to weak rim protection, as both opponents rank in the top five in field goal attempts from the restricted area.​

The Bucks have only allowed 36 paint points in each of their previous two losses, the issues have lied in poor three-point shooting which should regress to the mean considering they are third in three-point percentage on the season. The Bucks are also 2nd in the league in field goal attempts from the mid range and 2nd in percentage of total points that come from this zone. The Pacers are bottom 7 in defending the mid range when it comes to field goal percentage allowed at 43.7%, underscoring the stylistic matchup that favours the Bucks.

Second-chance points could play a pivotal role in this contest. The Pacers rank last in the league in second-chance points per game, while the Bucks lead in defensive rebounds per game, thanks to the size and presence of Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. Given the potential for a high number of possessions due to both teams' fast pace, limiting Indiana's second-chance opportunities will be crucial. Furthermore, Milwaukee holds an edge in free throw attempts, ranking ninth in free throw attempts per field goal attempt offensively and eighth defensively, whereas the Pacers are 21st and 18th in these categories, respectively.​

The Pacers also rank fourth-worst in the league in defending the pick-and-roll roll man, a play type that the Bucks excel in, ranking seventh offensively. With Antetokounmpo and Lopez frequently setting screens for Damian Lillard, this could spell trouble for Indiana's defense.​

Our projections favor Milwaukee by 2 points, considering the Pacers' recent poor form and the challenging back-to-back scenario, we see value on the away favorite as they aim to secure a 3-0 season series lead.