The Baltimore Ravens face the Buffalo Bills in a high-stakes playoff matchup, with the Ravens looking to build on their dominant win earlier in the season. Despite Buffalo’s home-field advantage and a few personnel changes, Baltimore remains well-positioned to cover the spread due to their balanced roster, recent form, and favorable matchups.

Over the last eight weeks, Baltimore’s defense has been the league’s best: 1st in EPA per play allowed and 1st in success rate allowed. In comparison, Buffalo’s defense has faltered during the same stretch, ranking 21st in EPA per play allowed and 22nd in success rate allowed. Baltimore’s ability to neutralize the run game is particularly notable, ranking 2nd in rushing success rate allowed, which could limit James Cook’s ability to keep Buffalo in manageable down-and-distance situations. Moreover, The Ravens' rushing attack, ranked 2nd in EPA per play and success rate over the last 8 weeks, is a key edge against Buffalo’s 15th-ranked rushing success rate allowed.

While Buffalo has the league's top offense in EPA per play, Baltimore isn’t far behind, ranking 4th. Lamar Jackson’s increased rushing attack has opened up the Ravens' offense significantly. His dual-threat ability forces defenses to account for both the run and pass, giving Baltimore more flexibility in their playcalling. Even without wide receiver Zay Flowers, Baltimore’s offense has the tools to exploit Buffalo’s defensive vulnerabilities. This was showcased when the Ravens dominated the Bills 35-10 in their first meeting, and not much has changed structurally. Baltimore's defense was able to stifle Josh Allen’s “hero ball” approach, and their secondary remains one of the best at limiting big plays. Allen's reliance on off-script plays could backfire against a disciplined Ravens unit.

We see value on Baltimore up to -2.5 but are recommending a maximum of 1 unit here given the potential in variance for both of these offenses.