The main concern heading into this game is Cerro Porteño's upcoming Copa Libertadores group phase opener on Tuesday night. However, it's important to note that this Copa game will also be played at home. Additionally, Cerro are coming off an international break, during which only two players were involved — centre-back Gustavo Velazquez, who played just 45 minutes off the bench, and goalkeeper Roberto Fernandez. So, with a break in fixtures, the Copa game being played at home, and their need for a league win, squad rotation feels unlikely and any downturn in performance due to Copa - like we often see in South American leagues - is less likely as they are not returning from a Copa game, they are in fact returning off a long break in play where they've been able to rest and recover, so we expect a full strength side to be fielded here that approaches this game with the goal of taking all three points.

Cerro are under pressure to deliver a win here, with fans growing increasingly frustrated by their standard of performances, table position, and the overall look of the team under new manager Diego Martinez. Martinez is just 14 games into his reign, and it's worth noting that Cerro have faced tough circumstances in the league so far. They played four league games in close proximity to Copa Libertadores qualifiers, where travel, fatigue, and squad rotation likely affected their performance. Additionally, during their opening six league games, Cerro were without three key starters who were away with the Paraguay Under-20s. Two of these absentees were key defenders: Diego Leon, a full-back set to join Manchester United in July, and centre-back Quintana. Their absence had a clear impact on Cerro’s defence, as they failed to keep a clean sheet in their opening six games, winning just 2 of those 6 matches.

Performances have been gradually improving since Cerro regained their full squad. And now, coming off an international break, Diego Martinez has had valuable time to work with his players and further implement his philosophy. Despite some struggles, Cerro Porteño have performed well at home, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The dropped points came against the current top two in the league: a draw against a strong Libertad side, and a loss to Guarani sandwiched between Copa games, where fatigue played a major role despite Cerro’s overall dominance.

Cerro have secured comfortable home wins against lower-league opposition closer to newly-promoted Tembetary’s standard, with wins over Recoleta, Ameliano, and Nacional Asuncion, scoring 2 or more goals in all of those games. On home turf, Cerro Porteño have registered an average xG of 1.52 (top 4 in the league) and an xGA of 1.08 (2nd best in the league), and this has been achieved despite a rather makeshift defence at times.

Meanwhile, Tembetary have allowed an average xGA of 1.51 over their 10 league games, which increases to 1.60 xGA in away matches. They’ve struggled on the road, with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, managing just 2 goals in 5 away games and failing to score in 3 of those 5. Their most concerning result was a heavy 3-0 loss to Olimpia Asuncion, where they found themselves down 3-0 within the first half — a potential indicator of their inability to cope with stronger opposition.

With Cerro Porteño now having pretty much a full squad available and being in dire need of a positive result coming off a period of rest over the international break, this appears to be a good opportunity to back them in a buy-low spot. They are available at 1.91 on SkyBet, which is currently 22 ticks above Pinnacle.

Best odds available on SkyBet.