Juan Manuel Cerundolo, ranked 109, enters this match on the back of strong form. He’s compiled a 34‑20 record in 2025, with notable Challenger-level success on clay and a straight-sets win over Jan‑Lennard Struff this week in Gstaad. At 23, he’s hitting career highs in confidence and adaptability. David Goffin, ranked 68, is a seasoned veteran with six ATP titles and a career-high No. 7 ranking. Yet Goffin has struggled this season—his win rate around 41% pales behind Cerundolo’s ~63%—and he looks to regain momentum after early exits on grass prior to this match.

Advanced stats lean Cesundolo’s way. He’s converting approximately 32–34% of break-point opportunities versus Goffin’s middling 25–28% conversion rate. Cerundolo also holds serve in roughly 70% of his grass matches, showing greater efficiency under pressure, while Goffin’s hold percentage sits around 65–67%, with a tendency to falter late in tight games. Additionally, Cerundolo’s first and second serve win rates combined approach 75%, compared to Goffin’s more erratic 70% on grass.

Tactically, Cerundolo’s aggressive baseline game—flat, deep strokes and early ball striking—is well-suited to grass. His ability to redirect pace and step into returns neutralizes Goffin’s counter-punching tendencies. Goffin, by contrast, thrives on rhythm and extended rallies, which are rare on fast turf. While Goffin remains a polished defender, his movement and consistency have declined slightly this year, and against someone as dynamic as Cerundolo, he must strike early or risk ceding control.

Head-to-head context also supports the bet: Cerundolo leads 1–0 from their clay-court clash at Munich in April, prevailing in straight sets. Although that was on clay, it reveals a mental and tactical edge. Goffin has expressed fatigue and inconsistent touch this season, while Cerundolo has displayed hunger and upward trajectory, especially in pressure moments. Cerundolo is comfortable near break-even games and seizes momentum.

Finally, trends favor the Argentine. He’s won five of his last six matches in Gstaad, while Goffin has lost six of his last ten tour-level contests, including grass wins earlier in the week. Cerundolo’s grass racquet feel, return aggression, and superior conversion under duress form a compelling trifecta of edge for a match-winner selection here.