The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Indiana Pacers tonight at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse for Game 5 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Trailing 3–1, the Cavaliers face elimination but enter the game as large point favorites, reflecting confidence in their ability to extend the series.

Indiana secured narrow victories in Games 1 and 2, winning 121–112 and 120–119, respectively. Cleveland responded with a dominant 126–104 win in Game 3, showcasing their potential when firing on all cylinders. However, Game 4 saw the Pacers reclaim control with a 129–109 victory, capitalizing on Donovan Mitchell's early exit due to an ankle injury.

Throughout the series, the Cavaliers have demonstrated superior shooting efficiency, particularly in their Game 3 victory where they shot 54.9% from the field. Their defensive rating in that game was also notable, limiting the Pacers to 43.8% shooting. Additionally, Cleveland's rebounding advantage was evident, outrebounding Indiana 56–37, leading to 20 more field goal attempts.

Cleveland's success hinges on their defensive prowess and rebounding dominance. In games where they control the boards and limit second-chance opportunities, they have a clear edge. Their ability to force turnovers and convert them into transition points has also been a critical factor in their victories. With Donovan Mitchell expected to play despite his recent injury, his scoring ability adds a significant boost to the Cavaliers' offense.

The Cavaliers' frontcourt, led by Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, presents a formidable challenge for the Pacers. Their rim protection and rebounding capabilities can neutralize Indiana's interior scoring. On the perimeter, Darius Garland's playmaking and shooting can exploit the Pacers' defensive rotations. If Cleveland can maintain defensive intensity and execute their offensive sets effectively, they have a strong chance to cover the spread and force a Game 6.

Historically, teams trailing 3–1 in a series have a low success rate, but the Cavaliers' resilience and home-court advantage cannot be overlooked. They have covered the spread in 25 of 46 games as favorites of 7.5 points or more this season. Furthermore, Cleveland has a 39–17 record against the spread when scoring more than 115.1 points, a threshold they surpassed in their Game 3 win.

In conclusion, despite the series deficit, the Cavaliers possess the statistical advantages and motivational factors to win and cover the spread in Game 5. Their defensive capabilities, rebounding strength, and the potential return of Donovan Mitchell position them well to extend the series.

Best odds available at William Hill.