Flavio Cobolli has reached his first Wimbledon quarter-final with remarkable consistency, dropping only one set en route and assembling multiple tiebreaks in previous rounds. Novak Djokovic, chasing a record-breaking 25th major, returned to form with a four-set comeback win after losing the first set 1–6 in his last match.

Advanced metrics highlight Cobolli’s surprising competitiveness: he’s averaging over 43 games per match this tournament, well above Djokovic’s historical average of 35–38 games per match. Cobolli is converting roughly 30% of his break-point chances and holding serve close to 70%—not elite, but exceptional against Djokovic, who typically crushes return pressure .

Their prior meeting, in Shanghai 2024, ended in straight sets for Djokovic, but that was indoors on hardcourt. Grass neutralizes some of Djokovic’s baseline strengths and benefits Cobolli’s aggressive second-serve and approach shots, making for tighter games and more frequent service holds.

Recent performance trends support a battle longer than typical Djokovic matches. Cobolli’s ability to force tiebreaks and sustain rallies—coupled with Djokovic’s losses in opening sets—makes covering +7.5 games a sound play, anticipating a competitive quarter-final rather than a swift, one-sided win.