Cruzeiro look strong value on the 0.0 Asian Handicap line against Atlético Mineiro, particularly when factoring in rest, squad freshness, and home advantage. While both sides were in Copa action during the week, Cruzeiro arrive into this fixture significantly fresher. Having already been eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana, they fielded a heavily rotated side against Palestino midweek—only two players from their previous league starting XI were used, and both were taken off at half-time. Similarly, they were able to ease off in their last league game against Sport Recife, going 0-4 up away from home and withdrawing several key players before the 70-minute mark.

Atlético Mineiro, by contrast, have prioritised the higher-profile Copa Libertadores and went full strength in a high-pressure group match just days ago. That came after a demanding domestic fixture, and they now face this derby clash on shorter rest, having also played a day later than Cruzeiro in midweek. Injuries have further limited their ability to rotate. Midfielders Alan Franco and Gabriel Menino remain out, as does fullback Caio Maia. On top of this, winger Tomás Cuello—who has started all eight league games this season, scored in midweek, and has been one of their most creative players averaging over 2 chances created per 90—misses out through suspension. These absences will undoubtedly impact their cohesion and attacking options.

Looking ahead, Atlético also have a Copa do Brasil fixture in just a few days. While they will expect to beat third-tier Maringá at home after a 2-2 first leg, that game still looms large, especially given how fatigued their squad already looks. Meanwhile, Cruzeiro are in a much more comfortable spot, 2-0 up heading into their own second leg against Vila Nova, affording them full focus on this league match. However it's undeniable that Atletico Mineiro will barely be looking at that Copa match given the derby nature of this fixture. Mineiro have had the upper hand in this fixture in recent times, which perhaps gives reason to why the market still rates their chances, but in terms of fatigue and Cruzeiro's form, this feels like a great opportunity for Cruzeiro to get one over on their rivals.

Cruzeiro have started the season in excellent form. They’ve lost just two of their eight league matches—both away, and one of them after going down to ten men early against Internacional. At home, they’ve been perfect: four wins from four, including impressive victories over Flamengo and Bahia. They were strong at home last season too, with just four home losses all year—each one against top-six finishers.

Mineiro, on the other hand, continue to show weakness on the road. While they did pick up a 0-1 win away to Juventude recently, that came against a side in poor form who still managed to miss multiple clear chances, with Mineiro's sole goal beign somewhat lucky as a crossed free kick went through a pile of bodies and into the back of the net. Last season, Mineiro won just 4 of their 19 away league games, with two of those coming in improbable fashion: a comeback with two injury-time penalties against Gremio, and a 97th-minute winner against Internacional. Their away record showed no real consistency or dominance.

Taking all this into account—Cruzeiro’s fresher squad, formidable home record, Mineiro’s mounting fatigue and key absences, and their continued away struggles—there is clear value in siding with Cruzeiro on the draw no bet line in this fixture.

Best odds available at 888sport.