The Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) are set to face the Denver Broncos (9-7) in a Week 18 matchup at Empower Field at Mile High. Despite the Chiefs resting key starters, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the depth of their roster and the quality of their backups suggest they can remain competitive. Backup quarterback Carson Wentz, a former Pro Bowler with significant starting experience, will lead the offense. Wentz has previously demonstrated his capability to perform well in spot starts, including a solid performance with the Los Angeles Rams last season.

Broncos are in a must-win situation to secure a playoff berth, which has influenced betting markets to favor them by a significant margin. This line may be inflated due to Denver's perceived urgency, potentially providing value for bettors considering the Chiefs to cover the spread. Denver's offense has lacked explosiveness throughout the season, making it challenging for them to secure large-margin victories. The Chiefs' defensive reserves are among the best in the league, which could further limit the Broncos' scoring opportunities.

Considering the Chiefs' depth, the quality of their backup quarterback, and the potential overvaluation of the Broncos due to their must-win scenario, betting on the Chiefs to cover the +11.5 spread provides us with value down to a key number of +10.