The Oklahoma City Thunder face a pivotal Game 4 against the Denver Nuggets today at Ball Arena, trailing 2–1 in the Western Conference Semifinals. Despite the deficit, oddsmakers have installed the Thunder as moderately sized favorites, reflecting confidence in their ability to bounce back and even the series before returning to Oklahoma City.

In Game 1, the Nuggets edged out a 121–119 victory, capitalizing on late-game execution. The Thunder responded emphatically in Game 2, delivering a historic 149–106 blowout, setting a franchise playoff scoring record. However, Game 3 saw the Nuggets reclaim the lead with a 113–104 overtime win, despite a subpar shooting night from Nikola Jokic, who went 0-for-10 from three-point range.

Throughout the series, the Thunder have demonstrated superior depth and athleticism. Their youthful roster has allowed them to maintain high energy levels, particularly evident in Game 2's dominant performance. Conversely, the Nuggets' reliance on their starting five, who logged over 42 minutes each in Game 3, could lead to fatigue, especially with the short turnaround before today's game.

Despite shooting just 38.5% from the field and 25.7% from beyond the arc in Game 3, the Thunder managed to force overtime, indicating their resilience and potential for positive regression in shooting percentages. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the likely MVP, is expected to improve upon his 7-of-22 shooting performance. Additionally, the Thunder's bench has consistently outperformed Denver's, providing a crucial edge in depth and scoring versatility.

Oklahoma City's defensive strategy has effectively limited Jokic's impact, forcing him into less efficient shooting and higher turnover rates. Chet Holmgren's rim protection and the team's overall defensive cohesiveness have disrupted Denver's offensive flow. Offensively, the Thunder have exploited mismatches, particularly through Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein, who have capitalized on Denver's defensive lapses.

The Thunder have shown a pattern of strong responses following losses, as evidenced by their dominant Game 2 performance after a narrow Game 1 defeat. Their ability to adjust and execute game plans effectively positions them well to capitalize on the Nuggets' potential fatigue and reclaim momentum in the series. With the series on the line, expect Oklahoma City to leverage their statistical advantages and depth to secure a victory and cover the spread in Game 4.

Best odds available at Star Sports.