The Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder are set to face each other for the second consecutive night, following the Thunder's decisive 127-103 victory. In that game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander delivered an impressive performance, scoring 40 points and leading the Thunder to their seventh consecutive win. ​

The Thunder's defensive discipline was evident, as they limited the Nuggets to 11 free throw makes while converting 22 themselves. However, that difference was due to Denver's inability to capitalize on these high-percentage shots, shooting a poor 55% from the line, something that should regress to the mean this time around. 

The game was tightly contested through three quarters, with the score at 86-83 heading into the final period. However, the Thunder outscored the Nuggets by 21 points in the fourth quarter, covering the large spread. ​This game presents a better spot for Denver compared to the previous encounter, as they were coming off a grueling overtime game against the Suns, whereas the Thunder were more well-rested. The fourth-quarter collapse could have been a hangover from the overtime game, and the non-Jokić minutes were a struggle for Denver.​

The Nuggets' game plan was disrupted in the previous game when Aaron Gordon had to leave after seven minutes. With time to adjust and review the tape, Denver can make necessary adjustments and contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander more effectively this time around.​

If Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray are cleared to play, Denver could adjust their strategy to counter Oklahoma City's recent dominance. The Nuggets' shooting woes in the previous game, particularly their 12-40 performance from beyond the arc, suggest room for improvement. The latest news indicates that Jokić is expected to warm up and play, providing an opportunity to back the Nuggets early for potential closing-line value. ​

Our projections make this game +8 for the Nuggets, providing us with some value on the road underdog to bounce back.