We're taking small stakes props on Erosa to finish this fight in the later rounds, due to the combination of him holding the finishing upside in this bout and his durability, we feel there's some value to be taken on Erosa to find a finish late on. Best odds on Erosa to Win in Round 2 can be found at BetMGM or Unibet, best odds for Erosa to Win in Round 3 can be found at StarSports. Please find the writeup below for our main pick on this fight, Erosa ML.

This is a closely matched and volatile fight, but the current odds significantly underrate Julian Erosa's chances. Historically, Erosa tends to struggle when he gets caught early, particularly in Round 1. However, Costa does not profile as a consistent early finisher — his last first-round KO came outside the UFC in 2021 against a 12-11 opponent. While a flash finish is always possible, the likelihood of that happening here seems overstated.

If Erosa survives the early exchanges, he becomes an extremely difficult fighter to deal with. He’s aggressive, durable, and brings a high work rate with a wide range of striking tools and grappling threats. His ability to time takedowns off opponents’ kicks is especially relevant here, as Costa kicks frequently and often without setup. Against similar strikers like Dawodu and Jourdain, Erosa effectively disrupted their rhythm with pressure and clinch work — areas where he excels.

Costa has shown vulnerability in grappling exchanges, having been submitted once and caught in submission attempts in four of his six UFC bouts. That’s a concern against Erosa, who is dangerous with front chokes and carries a perfect 14-0 in submissions, winning 14 and never being submitted. While both fighters may look for takedowns, Erosa is the more threatening finisher on the mat.

Costa is getting credit in the market largely due to his recent win over Christian Rodriguez — a close fight that many thought could have gone the other way. It’s worth noting that Erosa finished Rodriguez in the first round, highlighting the disparity in finishing upside. Erosa also fights particularly well in small cage environments, where his pressure and volume become even more effective.

At underdog odds, Erosa is the value side. He has more ways to win over the full 15 minutes and brings finishing upside in all rounds, compared to Costa, who seems most dangerous only in the opening frame.