This matchup appears favourable for Navajo Stirling, particularly in the KO/TKO market. Erslan isn’t likely to pursue wrestling exchanges, meaning this fight should play out largely on the feet — an area where Stirling holds clear advantages in both technique and size.

Stirling’s past performances suggest he is more than capable of finding a finish here. Notably, the opponent he knocked out on Dana White’s Contender Series, Phillip Latu, was a tougher stylistic matchup than Erslan — a more durable fighter with a strong kickboxing background and a solid chin. Even Stirling’s UFC debut against Tuco Tokkos arguably posed a greater challenge than what Erslan presents in this fight.

Erslan has been stopped before and has shown vulnerability when hurt, making him a prime candidate to get caught clean in striking exchanges. While Stirling’s UFC debut wasn’t his best showing, debut nerves likely played a part, and he should look more settled and confident this time around.

With Stirling available at plus money to secure a finish, there’s some value in backing him to find the KO/TKO.