This is likely to be a closely contested fight, but Jared Gordon appears to be the side with more consistency, output, and mental edge at this stage of both fighters’ careers.

Thiago Moises remains a skilled grappler with experience against high-level opposition. However, his recent performances raise serious concerns. In his last fight, despite having clear grappling advantages, he showed hesitation to engage and lacked urgency — a pattern that’s been increasingly evident. His low output on the feet and apparent lack of confidence suggest a fighter who hasn’t quite recovered from earlier setbacks.

In contrast, Jared Gordon continues to show the same level of grit and pressure that’s defined his UFC run. While not the most explosive or athletic, he brings a relentless pace, pushes forward, and stays active — traits that tend to impress judges in close rounds. His recent fight against Nasrat Haqparast was a good example of how effective he can be when he stays aggressive and disciplined, even in a losing effort. He’s also had strong performances against top-level opponents, including fights many believe he should’ve won.

The big risk here lies in Moises getting on top or taking the back — he’s a dangerous grappler when he finds those positions. But outside of that path, Gordon has more ways to win. He should win the majority of the striking exchanges and is far more likely to be the fighter pressing the action and winning rounds based on volume and control.

At current odds, Gordon is the value side in a fight that will likely come down to activity and durability — both areas where he holds the advantage.

Best odds available at Betfred.