The Sacramento Kings enter this contest on a four-game losing streak, seeking to rebound at home following a two-game road trip that resulted in double-digit defeats to the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns. The Kings benefit from two days of rest, whereas the Memphis Grizzlies have had only one day off since their victory over the Miami Heat.​

This matchup marks the third and final meeting between these teams this season, with the series currently tied at 1-1. In their last encounter in early January at Sacramento, the Kings secured a 138-133 victory in a high-scoring affair. Notably, the Grizzlies were without star guard Ja Morant in that game, and he remains sidelined for tonight's contest. Conversely, the Kings were missing Zach LaVine in the previous matchup, as he was with the Bulls at the time, but he is now an integral part of Sacramento's roster.​

The Grizzlies have struggled to meet market expectations recently, posting a 3-13-1 record against the spread over their last 17 games. Initially favored in this matchup, the betting line has shifted in favor of the Kings, a movement we consider directionally accurate. Memphis holds a 6-11 record this season as an away underdog, while Sacramento boasts a solid 16-10 record when positioned as home favorites.​

The absence of Ja Morant presents a significant challenge for the Grizzlies' offense as they face a Kings team aiming to recover from recent offensive struggles. Given that Sacramento ranks seventh in offensive rating this season, it is reasonable to view their recent scoring difficulties as an anomaly.​

The Kings enter this contest with a clean bill of health, highlighted by the recent return of Domantas Sabonis against the Suns following a six-game absence. Sabonis's playmaking abilities are crucial to Sacramento's offensive cohesion, and it is unsurprising that the team experienced some disarray in his initial game back—a common occurrence when reintegrating primary ball handlers. Additionally, the team's depth is bolstered by Jonas Valančiūnas transitioning to a bench role, enhancing the second unit's performance. The availability of both big men is expected to significantly improve the Kings' rebounding efforts and overall rotational chemistry.​

The Grizzlies exhibit notable disparities in defensive performance between home and road games, ranking sixth in defensive efficiency at home but dropping to 12th on the road. Their primary defensive vulnerabilities are in guarding the perimeter and midrange areas. Memphis ranks 26th in three-point attempts allowed and 22nd in three-point makes allowed to opponents, which could be problematic against a Kings team capable of prolific three-point shooting, especially with Zach LaVine's recent exceptional form and DeMar DeRozan’s elite midrange scoring.

Defensively, the Kings are well-positioned to counter the Grizzlies' strengths, ranking eighth in opponent points in the paint per game and second in fast-break points allowed. This defensive prowess enables them to neutralize Memphis's primary offensive strategies, as the Grizzlies rank second in paint scoring and eighth in fast-break points, reflecting their preference for interior presence and an up-tempo style of play.

Furthermore, the Grizzlies typically hold an advantage in rebounding, particularly in securing second-chance points, ranking third in that category and second in offensive rebounding percentage. However, they will face the league's top team in opponent offensive rebounding percentage tonight, with the Kings also ranking in the top ten in limiting second-chance points.​

Considering the Grizzlies' recent struggles against the spread and our projections indicating that the current line may undervalue the Kings, we perceive this as a mispriced spread and identify value in backing Sacramento to rebound and cover.