Quentin Halys meets Daniil Medvedev today, with a +2.5 games handicap on Halys looking both cautious and promising. Halys has won 7 out of his last 10 grass matches, winning nearly 83% of his service games and pushing Medvedev to straight sets. Medvedev, though heavily favoured, has dropped at least one set in 5 of his last 10 grass matches.

Halys’ service games are rock-solid: he wins 83% of them and rarely concedes double breaks. Medvedev, meanwhile, although strong, has lost a serve or faltered in every second grass match, showing vulnerability especially in close quarters. Medvedev’s elite return game keeps him in front, but Halys can hold consistently and is adept at prolonging service games.

Tactically, Halys uses his slice and variety effectively on grass, which offsets Medvedev’s baseline power. Medvedev tends to suffer in tight tie-break fails or early breaks, while Halys stays mentally engaged and steady. The trend line shows Medvedev is vulnerable in certain match conditions while Halys is delivering consistent service holds on this surface.

Given Halys’ strong hold percentages, Medvedev’s occasional dip under pressure, and the likely tight scoring dynamics, backing Halys to stay within 2.5 games is a calculated and value-based choice.

Best odds available at SBK.