The Atlanta Hawks enter tonight's matchup following a narrow defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks, where a fourth-quarter lapse led to a 127-121 loss despite holding a lead for much of the game. The Indiana Pacers, meanwhile, aim to extend their winning streak to three as they commence their road trip.​ 

Situationally, this appears favorable for the Hawks, who have performed well as underdogs this season, boasting a 23-18 record against the spread. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled to meet market expectations when favored on the road, covering just 5 of 15 such games.​

In their sole meeting this season, the Pacers secured a 132-127 home victory. Notably, the Hawks were without Clint Capela in that game and lacked the contributions of Caris LeVert, acquired mid-season from the Cavaliers.​

Statistically, the Pacers rank 8th in offensive rating and 17th in defensive rating this season. However, their offensive efficiency declines on the road, dropping to 16th. A significant factor is their three-point shooting, which decreases to 35.8% on the road (12th) compared to 38.8% at home (4th).​

The Hawks, currently 21st in offensive rating, have shown improvement, ranking 10th over the past 10 games. This upward trend is expected to continue against the Pacers' below-average defense, especially on their home court.​

Both teams play at a fast pace, ranking in the top 8, suggesting a high-possession game. Rebounding will be crucial, and the Hawks hold an advantage, ranking 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Pacers are 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage. In the past 10 games, the Pacers have been 29th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.​

While both teams excel in paint scoring, ranking in the top 7, the Pacers struggle defensively in this area, ranking 28th in opponent paint points per game. Additionally, the Pacers have reduced their paint scoring recently, obtaining 37.7% of their points from three-point range in the last 15 games, during which they have dropped to 13th in paint points.​

A pivotal aspect could be free throw disparity. The Hawks rank 2nd in free throw attempts per game and 5th in free throw rate, whereas the Pacers are bottom 10 in opponent free throw attempts per game and 22nd in free throw attempts on offense. Given that the Hawks are 6th in percentage of points from free throws, this presents a notable edge.​

Our projections set the Pacers as 2-point favorites, indicating value on the home underdog Hawks.​