This looks like a strong buy-low spot on Hiroshima, whose recent form doesn't quite reflect their underlying performances. They’ve failed to win two of their last three, but context matters — a narrow 1-0 away defeat to Kawasaki via a 94th-minute goal before the break, and a draw against league leaders Kashima on their return, where they again conceded late in the 92nd minute after leading most of the match. Effectively, they were denied four points due to stoppage time goals, and responded with a convincing 0-4 win away to Yokohama FC, a result that suggests they’re back on track.

Their recent home form is also being undervalued. While they've lost 3 of their last 5 at home, those are their only home defeats all season. They’ve still posted 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in Hiroshima this campaign, with those losses coming against decent opposition — a tight one to Kawasaki and two somewhat fluky 0-1s to Albirex and Fagiano. A tactical tweak and the addition of Kinoshita from Kashiwa has addressed their brief attacking dip; he scored twice last game and looks an instant impact player. Hiroshima now boast the 3rd highest home xG in the league (1.69 per 90) and the best defensive numbers overall, with league-low xGA of 1.12 — including just 1.06 xGA at home.

Nagoya Grampus, on the other hand, remain one of the league’s poorest away sides. They've won just 1 of 11 away games, and that win came at a neutral venue against struggling Shimizu, where their opponents failed to register a shot on target. Their away xG drops to just 1.26, with a meagre return of 0.91 goals scored per game, compared to 1.60 at home. They've also conceded heavily on the road, giving up 1.55 xGA and keeping just a single clean sheet — again, in that neutral-site game.

The goalkeeper situation is also worth noting. Young 19-year-old Alexandre Pisano continues to deputise for the injured Schmidt and has only faced more than two shots on target in two of his eight league starts. Hiroshima, who average over 5.6 shots on target in their last five and 13+ total shots in 75% of games, are likely to test him more than he's experienced to date. Star attacker Ryo Germain leads the league in total shots and is joint-second for shots on target, fuelling this high shot volume.

While Nagoya did beat Hiroshima in the reverse fixture, it came off the back of a one-man performance from Mateus, who scored two goals from low-percentage chances — a win that was backed by just 0.25 xG. A repeat seems unlikely, especially with Hiroshima's strong defensive record and home advantage.

Motivationally, Hiroshima should have the edge here. This is their game in hand, and a win takes them into second, just two points off Kashima. Nagoya, meanwhile, have a five-point cushion from the relegation zone and easier fixtures coming up against bottom-five sides. Their urgency may have dipped slightly after the international break disrupted a brief positive spell in May.

With Unibet and BetMGM currently offering Hiroshima -0.25 at 1.78 — currently 7 ticks above Pinnacle — this looks like strong value. Hiroshima to win have closed above evens at home just twice all season, and only against top-tier opponents like Kashima and Kawasaki. Against a Nagoya side that has failed to impress on the road, Hiroshima should be much shorter here.