After diving deeper into this matchup, I’ve come away liking Dustin Poirier more than expected. These two went five rounds back in 2019, and while it was a competitive, high-paced fight, Poirier clearly won 4-1 and visibly hurt Max on at least five occasions. Holloway held his own in volume, but the damage and power advantage were overwhelmingly on Dustin’s side — and that dynamic should still hold true today.

Since their first meeting, Max has taken a lot of wear. He endured a brutal trilogy against Volkanovski, was dropped in Round 4 against Gaethje, hurt multiple times against Topuria, and eventually knocked out cold for the first time in his career. Though he’s moving up in weight again — which likely helps his chin — he’s still facing a bigger puncher who can match his output and pace.

Dustin, meanwhile, is in great shape and has sounded mentally sharp in pre-fight interviews, despite this being framed as his potential retirement bout. He’s at home in Louisiana, will have the crowd behind him, and is the more dangerous fighter in terms of finishing upside. He’s also historically come out on top in wars, only really losing to elite grapplers or getting caught clean. Against someone like Max, who isn’t known for one-punch power, that’s a key edge.

Poirier is also more likely to mix in takedowns if he chooses to — he attempted eight in their previous fight — though it’s probably wiser for him to avoid grappling exchanges given Max’s dangerous front chokes. Regardless, Poirier is the one with more tools, more power, and a proven path to victory against Holloway.

This could still be a razor-close contest at times, but Dustin’s ability to land the heavier shots and do more visible damage should resonate with judges, especially in front of a home crowd. Overall, in such a closely contested bout, catching 2.20 on Poirier here feels like good value, this is currently 11 ticks above Pinnacle and feels good value. Poirier opened at 1.91 on Pinnacle, and has since drifted out, and it feels like there is likely to be some buy back on the Poirier side closer to fight night, 2.20 feels like the peak of this drift, while backing Holloway at his current odds seems way too short.

Best odds available at WilliamHill and BetVictor, 2.18 also available at BetMGM and Unibet.