The 14th-seeded Charlotte Hornets travel to Miami to face the Heat, who have been enduring a poor stretch in recent games. Miami has won only one game in their past five fixtures, against the struggling Washington Wizards. The Hornets, meanwhile, are coming off a rare win, having defeated the Brooklyn Nets 105-102 at home. ​

In the small sample of games following a win, the Hornets have performed well in maintaining that momentum concerning market expectations. As indicated by trends, they hold an 8-4-2 record against the spread after victories. Conversely, the Heat have struggled in conference games and currently sit ninth in the Eastern Conference standings. Moreover, the Hornets are 9-0 ATS since April 2024 when the total is more than 203, and they allowed fewer than 103 points in the previous game.​

The Hornets enter this fixture healthy, with everyone expected to be available, and they have played much better when the group is intact. Surprisingly, the Hornets' defense has been the unit performing well this season, ranking 17th in defensive net rating, while Miami is not far off at 12th. The more significant difference lies on the offensive side, where the Hornets rank 29th and the Heat 21st in offensive rating. That said, the season metrics are not as far apart as one might think. ​

One area where the Hornets have excelled is interior defense, ranking 11th in paint points allowed per game. Although the Heat are not a high-volume paint-scoring team, ranking 24th on offense in paint points, they may need to adjust their strategy if shooters like Duncan Robinson, Alec Burks, and Haywood Highsmith are sidelined, as all are currently listed as questionable. ​The Hornets should be able to challenge the Heat in perimeter shooting, as they rank eighth in three-pointers attempted and 14th in three-pointers made per game. The Heat are bottom 10 in both of those defensive categories. ​

With the likes of Miles Bridges healthy for the Hornets, they are expected to generate enough offense to keep pace with the Heat, who average just 110.1 points per game on the season, placing them 25th in the league. The Hornets are not far behind, ranking 28th with 105.3 points per game. Bridges recently exploded for 46 points in a game against the Cavaliers and should carry over his scoring momentum. A key area of focus for the Hornets will be securing second-chance points; they rank second in the league in this category and third in offensive rebounds per game, while Miami is 27th in offensive rebounding and 29th in second-chance points.​

The season head-to-head record currently stands at 2-0 in favor of the Heat. However, the Hornets were competitive in both matchups, losing by four and eight points, which would cover tonight's spread. The Hornets were missing players in both of those games, and given their healthy injury report, there is a good chance they can once again outperform market expectations tonight against a struggling Heat team.