The Houston Rockets face a must-win Game 5 against the Golden State Warriors, trailing 3–1 in their first-round playoff series. Despite the deficit, the Rockets return to the Toyota Center, where they have been formidable, boasting a 29–12 home record during the regular season. With their season on the line, the Rockets are poised to leverage their home-court advantage and youthful energy to secure a victory and cover the spread.​

The series has been competitive, with each game highlighting different strengths of the teams. The Warriors took Game 1 with a 95–85 win, but the Rockets responded in Game 2, securing a 109–94 victory behind Jalen Green's 38-point performance . Golden State regained the lead in Game 3, winning 104–93, and edged out a narrow 109–106 victory in Game 4, despite Alperen Şengün's 31 points and 10 rebounds . Notably, the Rockets have been competitive in each contest, indicating their capability to challenge the Warriors.

Throughout the series, the Rockets have demonstrated strengths in offensive rebounding and second-chance points. They led the league in second-chance points (18.1 per game) and offensive rebounding (14.6 per game) during the regular season . In the playoffs, their offensive rebounding percentage stands at 32.4%, surpassing the Warriors' 29.8% . However, free-throw shooting has been a concern, with the team converting just 63.2% from the line in the series, the lowest among playoff teams . Improving in this area could significantly enhance their scoring efficiency.​

The Rockets' youth and athleticism have posed challenges for the Warriors. Their ability to dominate the paint and secure offensive rebounds has kept them competitive. In Game 2, they outrebounded the Warriors 47–33 and scored 46 points in the paint compared to Golden State's 28 . Additionally, the Rockets' bench has provided valuable contributions, with players like Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. offering defensive versatility and energy. If the Rockets can capitalize on their strengths and improve their free-throw shooting, they have a strong chance to win and cover the spread in Game 5.​

Historically, teams trailing 3–1 in a series face long odds, but the Rockets have overcome such deficits before, notably in 1995 and 2015 . Their resilience and home-court advantage provide a foundation for a potential comeback. Furthermore, the Rockets have a 44–40–1 record against the spread this season, indicating their ability to perform relative to expectations . With their backs against the wall, expect the Rockets to play with urgency and determination, making them a compelling pick to win and cover the spread in Game 5.

Best odds available at Bet365.