JEF United’s price looks inflated due to a rough recent run of just one win in their last six, but the context around that form is important. Four of those games were away from home, one was a “home” fixture played at a neutral venue against current second place Omiya Ardija, and the other was a 0-0 draw with third-place Vegalta Sendai where JEF missed a penalty. During this phase, they were also hit with key injuries. Their first-choice central midfield duo, Taishi Taguchi and Eduardo, are now both back — Taguchi came off the bench last game, and Eduardo has been back in full team training this week. Shinada is available as well, making this one of the first times this season all three preferred CMs are fit and in contention. Carlinhos, who has contributed well this season, is also likely to return to the starting XI, and they now have a full attacking line available with Ishiwaka, Goya and Hayashi all back from some spells on the sidelines.

At home, JEF have been exceptional. Discounting the Omiya game played at a neutral venue, they are unbeaten on home turf this season, with 6 wins and a 0-0 draw. They’ve scored 16 and conceded just 5 in those 7 home games, netting 2 or more in 5 of them and posting a strong home xG of 1.63 per 90. This home dominance is not new — last season, JEF scored more home goals than any side in the league (46 in 19), with 12 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses. Three of those losses came against top five teams, and the others were against sides inside the top 12, two of those during congested cup weeks, and the last being in very unlucky fashion, conceding two after the 90th minute to lose 1-2.

This is a key fixture for JEF heading into the break. After missing out on a playoff spot last year on the last day, there’s a clear sense of purpose this season, and this final pre-break game offers a great opportunity to bounce back after a tough recent schedule. Of their last six matches, five have come against sides currently sitting in the top nine. Even the draw to Roasso Kumamoto is somewhat explainable, as JEF rested key players in that game.

Renofa, meanwhile, sit third bottom with just 3 wins from 17 games. They slumped badly in the second half of last season and that trend has largely continued. They’ve collected just one win on the road this season, with 2 draws and 5 losses, keeping just one clean sheet in 8 away matches while conceding 1.51 xGA per 90. They've failed to score in three of their last four games and continue to struggle with both injuries and rotation, especially in defence where no consistent centre-back pairing has formed. In attack, several of their more productive players like Arita and Suenaga have also missed games or lacked fitness recently.

Head-to-head form at this venue favours JEF strongly — they’ve won the last three home meetings against Renofa by margins of 4-0, 4-1 and 2-0. With key midfielders returning, a potent attack back at full strength, and strong home form behind them, this looks like an excellent bounce-back spot before the break. Since opening the price has drifted from 1.67 to 1.83, likely based on short-term results, but that feels like an overreaction, we expect this line to shorten close to kick off, and 1.83 seems like a generous spot to back JEF United to get the three points here, and go into the break top of the table.

Best odds available at bet365.