JJK look like a strong value play on the 0.0 Asian Handicap line here, especially given their exceptional home record and the sharp contrast in trajectory between these two sides.

JJK remain unbeaten at home this season, with 5 wins and 2 draws from 7 games, scoring 18 and conceding just 4. While they’ve drawn their last two home games, those followed five straight wins, and this presents something of a buy-low spot. JJK’s defence has been a clear strength all year — no side in the league has conceded fewer goals (14 in 14 matches), and their average of 0.71 goals conceded per 90 at home is elite by divisional standards.

Tampere United, on the other hand, are being given some market respect based largely on their early-season form and a previous 2-1 win over JJK. However, that result came with an 88th-minute winner — just their second shot on target in the game — and JJK were away from home, where their performance levels drop off noticeably.

Since that early May meeting, the form lines of these two clubs have sharply diverged. Tampere’s five wins in their opening six games remain their only victories of the campaign. Since 15 May, they’ve gone eight matches without a win, losing six and drawing two — and those two draws were both at home, both 2-2. Away from home, they’ve lost five in a row, failing to score in three of those and conceding multiple goals in all five. Their defensive record is particularly poor: 24 goals conceded in 14 games, with 20 of those coming in the last 10.

Tampere are averaging 1.71 goals conceded per match, and a worrying 2.14 per 90 on the road. By contrast, JJK’s defensive solidity at home and across the campaign (1.07 goals conceded per game in total) suggests a significant gap in consistency and quality. Tampere currently rank bottom of the form tables over the last 5 and 10 games, underlining how reliant their current league position is on a fast start.

Since the defeat to Tampere, JJK have bounced back well, going 10 matches with just 3 losses — all of those losses away. And when comparing home win odds, JJK closed at 1.40 at home to KuPS Akatemia last month — a team on identical points to Tampere — showing that JJK are capable of being priced much shorter at home versus comparable opposition.

Tampere’s market position has been softening for weeks now. In their last four away games, the draw no bet price on Tampere has drifted out 33, 39, 22, and 15 ticks respectively — and Tampere lost all four. We expect a similar move here and think JJK to win with draw insurance offers strong value in current conditions.

Pinnacle odds currently at 1.78, Cloudbet at 1.74 - this pick still holds value at 1.68 on bet365.