The Kansas City Chiefs enter this playoff rematch against the Buffalo Bills with revenge on their minds after a Week 11 loss (30-21), the only defeat this season with their starters on the field. That game revealed several key factors that are unlikely to replicate here, setting the stage for a strong Chiefs performance. In that matchup, both teams averaged similar yardage per play, showing neither dominated the other offensively. That said, the Bills ran 20 more plays, controlling possession largely due to third-down success (9/15) and winning the turnover battle (2:1).

However, with adjustments, these areas are likely to swing back in Kansas City’s favor. Kansas City’s 2-high coverage and playoff-specific man coverage schemes have historically neutralized top offenses. With Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie healthy, the Chiefs' secondary is primed to limit Buffalo's downfield passing, forcing them into a less comfortable middle-of-the-field attack targeting the likes of tight end Dalton Kincaid. There is also expected to be an added focus on containing Josh Allen’s scrambling (a key deciding factor in Week 11) with spy packages.

Buffalo’s pass defense has struggled significantly in the second half of the season, ranking bottom five in both EPA and success rate since Week 11. The Chiefs’ offense, led by Patrick Mahomes and a healthy skill-position group including Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown, is set to exploit Buffalo’s secondary. The absence of safety Taylor Rapp and potential absence of cornerback Christian Benford further exposes the Bills’ vulnerability. Furthermore, the Chiefs were not fully healthy in the regular-season loss, but they now have critical defensive and offensive players back, allowing them to increase their preferred man coverage rates, use more disguised blitz packages to create pressure on Allen and run their most effective passing plays, which Mahomes often reserves for high-stakes games.

From a trend stand point, this spot also favours the Chiefs who excel in revenge games, boasting a 24-7 record in such spots since 2019, and 13-4 when those games are at home. Moreover, night game favorites performed exceptionally well this season, going 47-12, a trend favoring Kansas City as home favorites on Sunday night.

Overall, with home-field advantage, playoff-proven defensive adjustments, and an offense firing on all cylinders, the Chiefs are well-positioned to avenge their Week 11 loss. Given Buffalo’s defensive struggles and the Chiefs’ ability to adapt strategically, betting on Kansas City to win outright is a strong play.