Historically, the Chiefs have leaned heavily on their passing attack when facing the Bills, often exceeding their average pass rates. This strategic choice aligns with the Bills' defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in their secondary. The Bills' pass defense has been atrocious over the back half of the season, allowing high success rates and substantial yardage to opposing quarterbacks. Compounding these issues, starting safety Taylor Rapp has been ruled out due to a hip injury, and cornerback Christian Benford remains in concussion protocol, making his availability uncertain.

The Chiefs have a fully healthy roster, including elite receivers like Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, Mahomes is well-equipped to exploit the Bills' weakened secondary. Given the Bills' stout run defense and the Chiefs’ decline in the run game metrics, the Chiefs may prioritize their aerial attack, increasing Mahomes' passing opportunities. He is expected to pass the ball approximately 35 times based on the market props, which sets up ample opportunity for him to gain enough yardage with this level of volume.

Moreover, the anticipated competitive nature of this matchup suggests a back-and-forth scoring affair, which would necessitate sustained passing efforts from Mahomes. Only in scenarios where the Chiefs secure a substantial lead might they shift to a more run-heavy approach.

Considering the Chiefs' historical passing tendencies against the Bills, the current injuries in Buffalo's secondary, and the game's projected competitiveness, betting on Patrick Mahomes to exceed his passing yardage appears to be a valuable bet.