The Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round. Several factors suggest that Kansas City is well-positioned to cover this spread.

Securing the AFC's No. 1 seed early allowed the Chiefs to rest key starters for essentially over three weeks. This extended rest is particularly beneficial for veteran contributors like Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins, ensuring they're in peak condition for the playoffs. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, now fully recovered from his previous ankle injury, is expected to perform at his elite playoff level without any injury hindering his mobility. His ability to execute quick passes can effectively counter the Texans' pass rush, mitigating one of Houston's primary defensive strengths.

Moreover, the anticipated return of cornerback Jaylen Watson is significant for the Chiefs' defense. Watson excels in man coverage, allowing the defense to adopt more aggressive schemes. His presence, alongside Trent McDuffie, strengthens the secondary, especially against a Texans' receiving corps weakened by the loss of Tank Dell. Additionally, the Texans' offense faces challenges, notably on the interior offensive line, which could struggle against the Chiefs' defensive front. With Tank Dell sidelined, Houston's receiving threats are limited, placing additional pressure on quarterback C.J. Stroud to connect with his number 1 option Nico Collins to gain any consistency in the passing game.

Considering the Chiefs' improved health, Mahomes' readiness, defensive reinforcements, and coaching prowess, Kansas City is poised to cover the 8-point spread against the Texans in this playoff matchup. We have value on this number up to -9.