Kilmarnock host high fliers Hibs in Scottish Premiership action on Saturday. After a disappointing start to both sides' campaign that saw them languishing at the foot of the table, Hibs have massively turned around their season and are now the best of the rest after the Old Firm in Scotland. Killie meanwhile have been unable to kickstart their season, occupying third-bottom in the table amid a real inability to string results together. After three successive defeats that has seen them edged by Aberdeen and Ross County in tough 1-0s and a damaging 4-2 loss from 2 up against Rangers, McInnes will be looking to stop this rot in his usual manner of breaking up games and limiting the opposition.

Hibs visited Killie all the way back on the first of September, managing just 0.44 xG. A long range Joe Newell strike (likely a cross) put Hibs into a lead before a stoppage time penalty earned Killie a 1-1 draw. This marked the beginning of a trend that has lasted all season for Hibs, in which they have found their away days as favourites, and against those who break up play, very difficult to manage. Since this trip to Killie, they have played Kelty Hearts, Ross County (twice), St Johnstone, Ayr and St Mirren away. These sides all look to limit superior opponents and stop play developing. In this sample, Hibs have both scored and conceded just 0.57 goals per game, creating 1.16 xG on average and conceding 1.22 xG on average. Seeing how successful these tactics have been, McInnes is very likely to look to smother a Hibs side who have found their groove since the start of winter.

Looking at Killie's last five games, they have scored 1.2 goals per game from 1.47 xG on average. They have drawn blanks away at Aberdeen and Ross County, and three of their 6 goals across these games came against bottom side St Johnstone. They have conceded at a rate of 1.4 goals per game from 1.24 xG, but 4 of these 7 goals conceded came against a Rangers side who had just sacked their manager and were there for the taking in the first half. Looking just at Killie's last 5 home matches, they have scored and conceded at a rate of 1.2 goals per game, despite a 4-2 loss and a 3-1 win over their last two.

There are regular complaints about the surface at Rugby Park, as players with joint injuries often have to sit out matches on the artificial surface, which is due to be banned from 2026. Only Dundee United's home ground has seen fewer goals per game than Kilmarnock's in the Scottish Premiership this season, and Kilmarnock's home games are bottom of the table for Over 2.5 coming in, with just 5 of the 14 matches there seeing overs land. A quarter of the 16 goals conceded by Kilmarnock at home this season came in their 4-2 defeat to Rangers in their last home match.

Looking over Hibs' last 5 league matches, the chance creation for both sides has been at a premium. Hibs have scored 1.8 goals per game from just 0.95 xG on average, a huge overperformance. They have conceded 0.6 goals per game from 0.88 xG conceded, and no team has scored more than once on league duty against Hibs since Rangers on the 5th of January.

Hibs were rocked in the Scottish Cup match against Celtic as their best player Nicky Cadden pulled a hamstring. He has been crucial to their turnaround from LWB, providing running coverage over the left wing and providing exceptional deliveries into the box. His twin Chris Cadden on the other wing is also a doubt, meaning that Hibs will have to get creative if they want to deploy a similar system to the one that has worked so well over the last few months. Killie have had almost two weeks off to prepare for this match having been knocked out of the Scottish Cup, but the game is still too soon for talismanic forward Kyle Vassell and best CB Stuart Findlay.

All of the recent meetings between the sides have been battles and we expect the same on Saturday, with a high amount of duels, the ball spending a long time out of play and long, hopeful balls forward as both teams scrap for a decisive goal.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.