As the Eastern Conference Finals return to Madison Square Garden for Game 5, the New York Knicks face a must-win scenario, trailing the Indiana Pacers 3-1 in the series. Despite the deficit, the Knicks are favored by 4.5 points, reflecting confidence in their ability to bounce back on home court.

The series has been a rollercoaster. Game 1 saw the Knicks squander a 14-point lead in the final minutes, losing 138-135 in overtime. Game 2 was another close contest, with the Pacers edging out a 114-109 victory. The Knicks showcased resilience in Game 3, overcoming a 20-point deficit to win 106-100, thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns' 24 points and 15 rebounds . However, Game 4 highlighted the Knicks' struggles, as they committed 17 turnovers leading to a 130-121 loss.

Analyzing the series' advanced statistics reveals areas where the Knicks can capitalize. In their Game 3 victory, the Knicks improved their defensive rating and limited the Pacers' fast-break opportunities. Conversely, in losses, New York's turnover rate spiked, and defensive lapses allowed Indiana to exploit transition plays.

The Knicks have demonstrated offensive efficiency, averaging 115.8 points per game, slightly above the Pacers' defensive allowance of 115.1. When surpassing this threshold, New York boasts a 34-6 record, indicating a strong correlation between offensive output and victories . Additionally, the Knicks shoot 48.6% from the field, outperforming the Pacers' opponents' average of 47.4%.

Key matchups favor the Knicks. Jalen Brunson has been a consistent offensive threat, averaging over 30 points in the series. Karl-Anthony Towns' versatility has challenged Indiana's frontcourt, particularly in Game 3. The Knicks' depth, including contributions from Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges, provides a balanced attack that can exploit the Pacers' defensive rotations.

Historically, the Knicks have performed well when facing elimination at home. Their ability to adjust strategies after losses has been evident throughout the playoffs. The team's resilience, combined with the urgency of an elimination game, suggests a strong performance in Game 5. Moreover, the Pacers' reliance on fast-paced offense may be mitigated by the Knicks' defensive adjustments and home-court advantage.

In conclusion, while the Knicks face a challenging situation, statistical analyses and matchup considerations indicate they possess the tools to cover the spread and extend the series. A focused effort, minimizing turnovers, and leveraging their offensive strengths will be crucial in Game 5.

Best odds available at SBK.