This is a volatile matchup where violence feels inevitable early. Nikita Krylov returns just three months after a brutal KO loss, and historically, he’s always been hittable in the opening minutes. While Bogdan Guskov is far from a complete fighter, his one-shot KO power is very real, and he’s live to clip Krylov early if this stays standing.

That said, Krylov has an absolutely massive grappling edge here. He should be able to get takedowns with ease and dominate on the mat — the BJJ gap is huge, and a first-round submission is a very realistic path. On the other side, Guskov’s best win condition is landing a bomb early before Krylov can get to work.

Given how wide the skill gap is on the ground and how fragile both guys are defensively, this feels like a classic “finish or be finished” spot in Round 1. Rather than laying huge chalk on the fight not going the distance, Under 1.5 rounds at 1.72 (−138) is a much better way to cover the likely outcome. One way or another, this probably doesn’t last long.