Lajal’s grass credentials are impressive this season: he’s compiled a 4–1 record in grass matches in 2025 and boasts a 21–10 overall win‑loss—both figures exceed Bergs’ corresponding tallies. While Bergs has a good 58% win rate overall, Lajal maintains better consistency and appears more comfortable on fast courts (65% career win rate vs 58%).

On serve and return, the figures are tight but tilt toward Lajal. His recent second‑serve win rate of 47.9% surpasses Bergs’ 46.2%, and he performs better on return opportunities, converting about 26.3% of first‑serve returns compared to Bergs’ 24.8%. Both players save a similar share of break points, but Lajal shows stronger match‑closing ability, winning 84% of matches when he takes a set and reaching deciding sets far more reliably than Bergs (89% third‑set wins vs Bergs’ lower trailing stats).

Tactically, Lajal’s aggressive, flat hitting style suits grass courts, keeping points short and leveraging his net approach. Bergs, though capable, relies more on momentum through baseline rallies and has dropped at least one set in each of his last six grass matches, with six of eight requiring deciding sets. That pattern shows he is vulnerable to players who can impose pressure early, like Lajal.

Trends further support the upset. Lajal enters this match on a grass win streak, with three main-draw victories under his belt, including a walkover over Hurkacz that propelled him here. He’s shown rapid adaptation and polished tactical adjustment round by round. Bergs, despite strong results on hard courts—including a top‑10 win—even performance levels have plateaued on grass this week, requiring tiebreaks just to progress.

Combining superior grass‑court form, sharper serving/return numbers, tactical compatibility, and mental resilience in tight matches, Lajal is primed to outplay Bergs today. Backing Lajal to win is grounded in substance and presents excellent value.

Best odds available at Bet365.