Since taking over Leuven at the start of December, ex-Wales manager Chris Coleman has done a fantastic job. He inherited a team sitting third from bottom and now has earnt them a spot the post-regular season Conference League group - they play their first game in this group here, at home to Charleroi. Under Coleman’s guidance, Leuven have played 15 league games, securing 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses. While this record may seem evenly split, if we look at the losses in more detail, their losses have been by extremely narrow margins. Three of their five losses were against the current top three in the league, and notably, 3 of the 5 losses were narrow 1-0 defeats where the only goal was a penalty. Two of those defeats came in games where Leuven received a red card, while the third was a last-minute defeat to Cercle Brugge, who scored a penalty in the 100th minute. Across those five losses, Leuven conceded just seven goals, with four of them being penalties. Overall, their losses have come by extremely tight margins, which speaks volumes about their defensive resilience - all five of their losses came away too. Where Leuven have truly excelled is on home turf. Since Coleman took charge, Leuven have played 8 home league games, winning 5 and drawing 3, while keeping six clean sheets in those matches. Their strong home record isn't limited to Coleman's reign, however; over the length of the season, they've lost just once in 15 home games, picking up 7 wins, 7 draws, and only 1 loss. That solitary defeat was a narrow 0-1 loss to second-placed Club Brugge, which occurred when Leuven had just two days of rest following a cup game three days prior. They have conceded just 10 goals across 15 home games, with 7 clean sheets in total, and 6 of those clean sheets coming under Coleman.

Despite Leuven's impressive home record, Charleroi are being priced as the favourites here, which feels unjustified. Charleroi have won just 10 of their 30 games in the regular season, with half of those wins (5) coming against the current bottom three teams. In fact, 8 of their 10 wins have been against sides within the bottom eight. While Leuven are part of that bottom eight, their home performance has been far superior to most of their counterparts.

Charleroi have failed to score in 6 of their 15 away games this season, and going up against one of the strongest home defenses in the league will be a tough test, especially coming off a break. Their form was also fading before the break, having gone winless in their last three games. Leuven have already beaten Charleroi to nil both home and away this season. In fact, Charleroi have failed to beat Leuven home or away across their last nine meetings, with 5 Leuven wins and 4 draws. Additionally, Charleroi have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 encounters with Leuven.

In terms of team news, Leuven appear well-prepared with just two players on international duty, both of whom played minimal minutes in Europe early in the week. Their only notable injury is to full-back Akimoto, who has been out for the last four games, but they have adjusted well to his absence.

Charleroi are slightly worse off, as their defensive midfielder Zorgane, who has started every league game this season, was away with Algeria and plays late on Tuesday night, so fatigue could be an issue. However, he is still expected to start. The more concerning absence for Charleroi is centre-back Aiham Ousu, who missed their last two games, and his status remains unclear pending the press conference.

Given Leuven’s excellent home form under Coleman, Charleroi’s struggles away from home, and the significant head-to-head record in Leuven’s favour, taking Leuven +0.25 Asian Handicap at the current price offers strong value.

Best odds available on bet365.