While Kevin Holland has been inconsistent at times, this is a stylistic matchup that heavily favours him, especially at 170 pounds where he’s most effective. He’ll hold a clear advantage in height, reach, and durability against Vicente Luque, who has shown signs of serious decline in recent performances. Once known for his chin and ability to walk through fire, Luque no longer absorbs damage the same way — something we’ve seen in his recent losses and the toll from years of wars.

Holland, despite being unorthodox, is still fast, powerful, and opportunistic on the feet. He arguably edged out Jack Della Maddalena in a close fight, which is a far better look than anything Luque has offered recently. Luque’s path to success would typically be pressuring with volume or leaning on some grappling, but against a longer, rangier striker with solid takedown defence and better cardio, it's difficult to see that plan working.

This sets up well for Holland to find a finish once Luque begins to slow or absorb clean shots. The KO/TKO prop adds value on a win condition that feels increasingly likely given the durability gap and trajectory of both careers.

We're picking 1u on Holland ML, and 0.5u on Holland KO/TKO.