In this overall matchup, our main pick will be Under 1.5, but we'll also be picking a small play on Brundage to Win by TKO/KO inside the first round, as this covers his primary path to victory in this fight, and at 19.0 these odds offer some good value.

This is a volatile matchup where both fighters are known for front-loaded violence, and the Under 1.5 rounds prop is feels like the most logical angle to attack. Brundage’s win condition remains the same as always — an explosive first-round finish, and more specifically a KO/TKO. While he does have some submission wins, it’s unlikely he finds a guillotine here, as Abdul-Malik isn’t the type to shoot lazy entries or panic wrestle early.

Malik is still green and has been hurt in multiple fights, including by Klein — who isn't known for his power — and even in regional bouts against far less dangerous opponents. He hasn’t faced someone as explosive or aggressive as Brundage, and that lack of experience could prove costly here. Brundage, for all his flaws, swings hard from the opening bell and has dropped opponents at the UFC level consistently.

Both men are historically Under 1.5 fighters, and this matchup lines up stylistically to continue that trend. Even if the under misses, it’s likely by only a minute or so, and the bulk of the finishing equity lies in the early going. Brundage is fragile himself and can absolutely get iced, but in terms of win condition and violence potential, Round 1 KO/TKO is how he wins fights, and that remains live here once again.