Swedish Cup final between two underperforming but highly motivated sides. With European qualification on the line for Häcken and Malmö under pressure to salvage a disappointing season, both teams are expected to approach this with caution.

Malmö average 1.33–0.83 in goals (1.64–1.17 xG), and at home 1.50–0.67 (1.80–0.96 xG). While their stats suggest control, the underlying performances have lacked sharpness. They come off a 1–0 loss to IFK Göteborg, and pressure is mounting. Talisman Pontus Jansson remains out injured, a major loss both defensively and in terms of leadership. Other key players like Christiansen and Kiese Thelin are not at full match fitness, limiting Malmö’s ability to dictate play and finish chances.

Häcken average 1.55–1.64 in goals (1.46–1.37 xG), and away from home: 1.20–1.40 goals (1.30–1.54 xG). They come off a 1–1 draw away to Djurgården last time out, with Simon Gustafson back from injury and playing in a more advanced role—scoring the opening goal and improving their attacking shape.

Both teams have had their share of injury troubles, but Häcken have coped better. With Malmö looking nervy and disjointed without Jansson, and given the high-stakes nature of the final, this match is likely to be close and cagey.

Häcken +1 at 1.925 looks like solid value, with a low-margin contest the most probable outcome.

Best odds available at Bet365.