Malmö are strong favorites at home, but the -2 handicap still looks steep given their overall performances this season.

The reigning champions have struggled to hit top gear. After 9 rounds, they sit 5th with 15 points—well below expectations. Injuries have disrupted continuity, and while lineups have remained strong on paper, the cohesion has been lacking. They’re averaging 1.44–1.00 in goals (1.70–1.39 xG), and at home 1.50–1.00 goals (2.10–1.16 xG). They’ve only once covered the -2 line this season—in a 4–1 win away at Degerfors, a match that was more even than the score suggests (3.14–2.53 xG).

Halmstad, meanwhile, are no pushovers. Despite a few early heavy defeats, they’ve been more stable of late. Their season averages are 1.00–2.00 in goals (0.88–1.69 xG), and away from home: 0.50–1.25 goals (0.51–1.35 xG). They took the lead away at GAIS last round before losing 3–1, but have shown enough structure to suggest they can stay competitive. Striker Agnero has scored in five straight games.

Malmö should win, but they haven’t consistently dominated opponents—especially not to the level expected by a -2 line. Halmstad +2 at 1.80 looks a reasonable bet.

Best odds available at Bet365.