Manchester United welcome Real Sociedad to Old Trafford for the second leg of their Round of 16 tie in the Europa League. United impressed for much of the first leg, looking sharp on the break and passing up a number of chances before Zirkzee slotted away a cool finish to take the lead. Bruno Fernandes then had an unfortunate handball defending a cross into the box, and Mikel Oyarzabal slotted home to level the tie 1-1 in San Sebastian.

It has been another turbulent season for United, with a change in the ownership and management of the club under Ratcliffe, as well as the arrival of Ruben Amorim part way through the season. Amorim has remained steadfast with his style of play, looking to enforce his expectations despite some arguing he doesn't have the players at his disposal to play in his way yet. United find themselves in a disappointing 14th place in the league table, but the Europa League has been a source of some joy for the Old Trafford faithful as they were the only side to go undefeated in the inaugural league phase.

While Sociedad don't quite have the expectation of Manchester United in domestic football, their La Liga campaign has been very poor by their standards. Currently occupying 11th place, behind the likes of Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano, Sociedad are likewise reliant on winning the Europa League to secure Champions League football next season. The top 4 in Spain looks like an insurmountable task for the San Sebastian side, who will be eyeing the final at their rival's Bilbao stadium in May as their ultimate goal for the season.

The goal expectation in this is very low given both sides struggles going forward this season. Sociedad have scored just 23 in 27 league games, while United have bagged just 34 in their 28 Premier League matches. Both sides have struggled at the back too however, with United now 9 straight games without a clean sheet. Both sides' Europa League matches have been much more open, with 3.09 GPM for Sociedad and 3.0 GPM for Manchester United. Sociedad's playoff tie against Midtyjlland was a very open affair, with the Spaniards running out 7-3 winners over the course.

Looking over Manchester United's last 6 domestic matches, they have only tasted defeat once in 90 minutes, although were dumped out of the FA Cup on penalties by Fulham. They have found a way to hold on to a result in most of these matches despite thei average xG concession of 1.42 against 1.13 created. They have scored 1.5 goals per game over this sample, conceding 1.33 goals per game. In the Europa League, they have averaged 1.89 goals per game from 1.97 xG, playing with much more freedom on the European stage. They have conceded 1.11 goals per game from an average xG of 1.14. They have disappointingly only kept two clean sheets in their 9 EL games however, coming in a 2-0 win over a poor PAOK side who threatened the goal on numerous occasions, and a 2-0 win over an FCSB side who had already qualified.

Sociedad have had a torrid time of late in domestic football, suffering early red cards in heavy defeats to Barca and Betis before putting in a limp performance in a 1-0 loss at home against Sevilla at the weekend. A number of La Real's key men were rested for this fixture, highlighting the importance of a result at Old Trafford. They have likewise enjoyed the freedom of the Europa League, averaging 1.91 goals per game from 1.93 xG. Sociedad averaged 1.18 goals conceded from 0.93 xG on average. They have kept 3 clean sheets from their 11 matches in the competition so far, also against PAOK, the whipping boys Dynamo Kyiv, and an impressive 2-0 shutout of Ajax. These clean sheets all came on home turf however, and they have conceded 1.6 goals per game on their travels in the EL.

Looking at UEL 2nd leg trends since 2022, we can see that the added permutations typically lead to more chances being created. The average xG in the UEL jumps from 2.72 to 3.05 per match from first legs to second legs. Goals are consistently underpriced across these 73 second legs, with the Overs mainline landing in 61.6% of second legs comapred to 51.2% of the 81 first legs in this sample.

Both sides are grappling with significant defensive injuries ahead of their upcoming fixtures. For Manchester United, defenders Maguire, Evans, Shaw, Martinez all remain out or doubtful, while Lenny Yoro is touch and go. Amad, Mainoo and Mount are missing further forward, while Ugarte is also a doubt. Sociedad face similar challenges, with RBs Odriozola and Arambaru out, defensive midfielder Sucic is a doubt, and CB Pacheco remains out. These absences predominantly affect the defensive structure of both teams, and will potentially necessitate more expansive styles of play.

With both sides playing for the riches of Champions League qualification by going all the way in the Europa League, and looking shaky at the back, we believe the total goals line should be higher than 2.25 at Old Trafford on Thursday.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.